Alert archive / Florida / River Flood Warnings in 2014
River Flood Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL
NWS Tallahassee, FL issued this river flood warning at Jan 14, 2014, 9:39 AM CST for 4 counties in Florida. It took effect at Jan 15, 2014, 3:00 AM CST. It was in force for 5 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 14, 2014, 9:39 AM CST (15:39 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 15, 2014, 3:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Jan 20, 2014, 9:01 AM CST
- In force
- 5 days
- Issued by
- NWS Tallahassee, FL
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
Counties Calhoun County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Liberty County, FL
The radar
The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Apalachicola River near Blountstown (BLOF1). The gauge peaked at 16.80 ft at Jan 17, 2014, 8:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 13 ft
- Minor stage
- 17 ft
- Moderate stage
- 23.5 ft
- Major stage
- 26 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02358700, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
247 WGUS42 KTAE 141539 FLWTAE FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1039 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2014 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-151539- /O.NEW.KTAE.FL.W.0001.140115T0900Z-140116T0600Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0900Z.140115T1800Z.140116T0000Z.NO/ 939 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WARNING FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * FROM LATE TONIGHT TO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 9:15 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.6 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 15.2 FEET TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EVENING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
8 follow-up statements
551 WGUS82 KTAE 151427 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 927 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-161427- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140118T1500Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140116T1200Z.140118T0900Z.NO/ 827 AM CST WED JAN 15 2014 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:15 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.2 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
437 WGUS82 KTAE 160131 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 831 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-170131- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140119T1930Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140118T1200Z.140119T1330Z.NO/ 731 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 7:15 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.8 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.5 FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
364 WGUS82 KTAE 161427 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 927 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN... FRANKLIN...GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-171427- /O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140119T1930Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140117T0000Z.140119T1330Z.NO/ 827 AM CST THU JAN 16 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:15 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.2 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.5 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
817 WGUS82 KTAE 170112 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 812 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-180112- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140119T1912Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140117T0600Z.140119T1312Z.NO/ 712 PM CST THU JAN 16 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 6:15 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.4 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.4 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
296 WGUS82 KTAE 171150 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 650 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-181150- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140119T2100Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140117T1800Z.140119T1500Z.NO/ 550 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2014 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 5:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.6 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.8 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
750 WGUS82 KTAE 181356 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 856 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-191356- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140119T1800Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140118T0015Z.140119T1200Z.NO/ 756 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 7:15 AM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.5 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
153 WGUS82 KTAE 191514 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1014 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN...FRANKLIN... GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-201514- /O.EXT.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140121T0051Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140118T0015Z.140120T1851Z.NO/ 914 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2014 ...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED. * AT 8:15 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 16.1 FEET. * MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 16.2 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW EARLY AFTERNOON. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
407 WGUS82 KTAE 201501 FLSTAE FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1001 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014 ...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA... APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN AFFECTING CALHOUN... FRANKLIN...GULF AND LIBERTY COUNTIES PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN. FOR GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON YOUR STATE. SELECT RIVERS AND LAKES AHPS UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CLICK ON YOUR RIVER POINT. && FLC013-037-045-077-201531- /O.CAN.KTAE.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140121T0051Z/ /BLOF1.1.ER.140115T0630Z.140118T0015Z.140120T0727Z.NO/ 901 AM CST MON JAN 20 2014 THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE APALACHICOLA RIVER NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN. * AT 8:15 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 14.3 FEET. * FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 1:27 AM MONDAY. * FLOOD STAGE IS 15.0 FEET. * FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 13.5 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. * IMPACT...AT 15.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS. THIS LEVEL IS THE TOP OF THE BANK AT THE MARINA. && LAT...LON 3061 8498 3007 8520 2972 8505 2980 8490 3009 8508 3061 8490 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tallahassee, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jan 14, 5:49 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 14, 5:49 AM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
649 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2014
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] The cold front will be east of VLD by 15z,
sweeping pre-frontal IFR and MVFR ceilings away with its passage.
VFR will then prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.Prev Discussions [335 AM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A broad long wave trough dominates much of North America this
morning with a short wave moving through its base across the Gulf
Coast States. The associated surface cold front bisected AL from
northeast to southwest at 06z. The entire system will move steadily
eastward with the front clearing Dixie County by midday. In the mean
time, periods of rain will continue this morning, mainly east of the
Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with just a few sprinkles west of
there. An area of locally dense fog has developed behind the main
precipitation area and just ahead of the front over Southeast AL.
This is expected to be short-lived. After morning clouds and rain
clear east, skies will be clear for the balance of the day.
Afternoon highs will actually be a few degrees above normal as the
airmass immediately behind this first front is not all that cold.
Look for highs to range from the lower 60s northwest of Dothan, AL
to around 70 southeast of Perry, FL.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Thursday]...
Shortwave energy will drop SEWD from the Central Plains to the NE
Gulf tonight through Wednesday significantly amplifying the long
wave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. This will push a
dry cold front through the Tri-state area Wednesday bringing with
it below seasonal temperatures. On Wednesday, highs will range from
near 50 for our northwest zones to the lower 60s in Dixie County.
Our coldest temps will be felt Wednesday night with a chance for at
least a portion of our FA experiencing a hard freeze. Light
northerly winds through the night with the surface high centered to
our west may provide just enough mixing to offset a widespread hard
freeze event. The expected winds of 5-10 mph could also produce wind
chills near or just below 20 degrees. So, there is a chance for hard
freeze and/or wind chill headlines Wednesday Night depending on how
things evolve. For Thursday, winds will gradually back from the
northwest to southwest as the next shortwave and associated cold
front rapidly approach from the northwest in this very progressive
pattern. Despite the onshore wind shift, temperatures on Thursday
continue to be forecast below seasonal levels although they have
been bumped up a few degrees. Look for max temps generally in the
mid to possibly upper 50s.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Another cold front arrives on Friday with a reinforcing shot of
cold air. There was enough support in GEFS ensemble members and the
ECMWF to include a 20% PoP on Friday with the cold front. The
relatively persistent nature of the east coast long wave trough,
and the third consecutive cold front, should set up a stretch of
below normal temperatures into the weekend. Some moderation in
temperatures is expected on Sunday and Monday.
.MARINE...
Advisory level winds across our western waters should diminish below
headline criteria later this morning. This will be short lived as
winds and seas increase to advisory levels over the entire marine
area tonight into Wednesday morning in the wake of a much stronger
cold front. These elevated conditions should continue until at least
early Thursday.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A series of dry cold fronts will bring reinforcing shots of dry air
to the region this week. Winds may be high enough and RH low enough
for a few counties in the FL Panhandle to meet that state's red flag
criteria so long as ERC values can recover to 26. Other than that,
it appears that the three criteria of low RH, wind, and dry fuels
will not meet any of our three states' criteria for red flag
conditions this week.
.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totals with the frontal system averaged between 0.5-1.0
inches, with some locations along the coast receiving between
1.0-1.5 inches. This rainfall will result in a rise on area rivers,
but widespread flooding is not expected.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 37 58 26 55 / 20 0 10 0 0
Panama City 66 44 57 31 55 / 10 0 10 0 0
Dothan 64 39 52 27 54 / 10 10 10 0 0
Albany 66 38 54 25 55 / 20 10 10 0 0
Valdosta 68 38 58 27 53 / 40 10 10 0 0
Cross City 70 37 63 28 55 / 60 0 10 0 0
Apalachicola 66 45 61 30 52 / 10 0 10 0 0
&&
.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal
waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...BARRYNearby
River Flood Warnings in Florida, 2014Every river flood warning in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.