River Flood Advisory 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
254 PM EDT Thu May 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An unseasonably strong cold front is about to push east of the
forecast area and is taking the last of the showers with it as of
18z. A deck of low clouds extends about 100 miles west of the
boundary and these are expected to clear out from west to east as
the afternoon progresses. Clear skies are expected overnight with
NNW winds ushering in unseasonably cool temperatures. Lows Friday
morning are forecast to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s across most
of the forecast area with mid to upper 50s at the coast. These
numbers are about 9-13 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Friday...the large scale pattern remains focused around a broad
trough centered from the Great Lakes to the deep south but is
dampening as impulses eject Newd away from south. At the
surface... Thursday's cold front is now well south of CWA. In its
wake...strong Wrn Gulf ridge building NEWD to across NE Gulf then
to Carolina Coast yielding tight local gradients. This translates
to strong NW flow to H5-H6 and strong SWLY flow above. A much
drier and noticeably cooler airmass will filter in as PWATs drop
to around 0.5 inch. Expect inland highs around 80. With the dry
airmass along with light winds and clear skies...Min temps are
forecast to dip to around 50 degrees.

Saturday...As more impulses/energy swings NEWD...trough will
continue to lift into NEWD Conus and fill with local flow becoming
zonal. At surface high pressure dominates Gulf region. Local flow
weakens and becomes generally WLY sfc to WSW aloft with some
increase in moisture/PWATS. Temps should return to more seasonal
temps on Sat with inland highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid to
upper 50s.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Upper trough has lifted into the NE states by Sunday to be
increasingly replaced by upstream ridging. By Tues...ridge axis to
over Ern Gulf and it lingers there thru Thursday. At surface..one
final impulse lifting NEWD will develop a weak stationary just
north of CwA late Sat or early Sunday but no dynamics to support
any but isold rain Nrn counties. Boundary washes out Sunday
evening as Atlc high bridges SWWD across the area and dominates
thru end of period. Locally this translates to mild
temperatures...light low level flow and benign conditions thru the
period. Assocd large scale subsidence will suppress precipitation
and clouds and lead to a gradual warming trend. Expect inland
highs in the mid to upper 80s inching up to near 90 degrees on
Thurs.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] MVFR ceilings will transition to VFR as the
afternoon progresses with clearing skies this evening. Winds
will be gusty out of the NNW until sunset. Clear skies and gusty
NW winds are forecast for Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will in the wake of a strong cold
front will end from west to east tonight through Friday morning
and then gradually drop below headline criteria by Friday
afternoon. Then, light winds and low seas should prevail at least
through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will be in place on Friday in the wake of today's
cold front. RH would be low enough to be concerned about red flag
conditions, especially considering the gusty winds we are expecting.
However, fuel moisture is simply way too high to allow us to meet
criteria in any of the three states we serve. It will remain dry on
Saturday with RH inching up across our western zones. Red flag
conditions are not expected over the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several area rivers received a slight to moderate bump in water
levels due to the rainfall over the past 24 hours, ending the much
needed downward trend. Most notably, the Steinhatchee River in
Cross City rose over 6 feet in under 6 hours. At this time it
appears as though the Steinhatchee may crest just below flood
stage. Otherwise, area rivers should not be impacted enough by the
rains to force flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   49  80  50  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  79  60  82  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        49  79  54  85  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        49  78  51  84  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      50  80  50  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  80  50  86  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  80  60  80  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN