Rip Current Statement 17, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2014

.Update...

The only updates this morning were to expire the small craft
advisory, and upgrade to a high risk for rip currents along Gulf
county beaches upon coordination with local beach patrol.
Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged.

&&

.Prev Discussion [550 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 09 UTC surface analysis showed a cold front across Central FL,
with an area of higher pressure building across the Southeast.
Vapor imagery and upper air data showed very dry, sinking air
aloft, so it's guaranteed not to rain today. In fact, clouds (if
any) will be few and far between. The GFS and ECMWF forecast the
1000-500mb thickness values to be about 50 m lower than the
airmass ahead of the cold front on Sunday- indicative of a cooler
airmass, but not exceptionally cold. We're forecasting highs in
the upper 60s to lower 70s (despite plenty of sun). Northwest to
North winds may be a little gusty this morning, but begin to
weaken later this afternoon.

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Deep layer ridging will be in place through the entire short term
period. The airmass will be very dry and this will result in quite
a variance between daytime and nighttime temperatures. Tonight
will be the coldest night with lows dipping to the upper 30s and
around 40 inland areas, 8 to 10 degrees below normal. Monday night
will be a few degrees warmer with lows around 40 to the mid 40s.
Monday's high temps will be in the upper 70s to around 80 and
around 80 to the mid 80s on Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Deep layer high pressure will maintain warm and dry weather
across the region through Thursday. Look for daytime highs in the
lower 80s during this period with lows in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Rain chances will return to the forecast for Thursday night
through Saturday as the next frontal system approaches from the
west. Model discrepancies exist concerning how quickly the front
will move east, with the Euro being more progressive than the GFS.
Highest PoPs for this period will be on Friday ranging from 50
northwest to 10 southeast. Daytime temps during this wetter period
will be in the 70s with lows generally 55 to 60 degrees.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] We expect unrestricted Vis and Cigs through the
period. NW to N winds 10-14 KT with higher gusts this morning and
early afternoon will gradually diminish and become less gusty late
this afternoon, then nearly calm tonight.

.Marine...
Advisory level winds have subsided, with cautionary levels
expected only for the next couple of hours. Winds will eventually
veer to onshore for the work week as high pressure slides slowly
to the east. Winds and seas will remain low with just a slight
increase on Thursday.

.Fire Weather...
RH values will be near or a little below locally critical values
this afternoon, but other factors (i.e. wind speed, ERC, and fuel
moisture) do not support Red Flag conditions today. With warmer
temperatures expected Monday afternoon, RH values are likely to be
lower than today, which could put Southeast AL near local Red Flag
criteria.

.Hydrology...
Minor flooding is forecast along the Choctawhatchee River at
Caryville early next week. Many rivers remain in action stage, but
no flooding is expected. Rainfall totals ending at 7 am Saturday
morning ranged from 2.5 inches in Southeast Alabama to 1.5 inches
elsewhere. The next chance for rain is Friday.

For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:

water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  37  78  39  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   68  46  74  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        69  41  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        68  39  77  44  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      71  39  79  43  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    71  39  78  42  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  45  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT (7 PM CDT) this evening
     for Coastal Gulf County.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN