Gale Watch 2, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The forecast for tonight looks on track and no substantive changes
were necessary. Stratus has filled in across the area as low-level
moisture gradually increases with increasing southeasterly
boundary layer flow. The result should be a fairly mild night
compared with last night, with lows mainly in the 40s (some upper
30s possible northwest). Patchy fog is being indicated by MOS and
probabilistic guidance, so it was included in the grids from
06-12z. At this time we aren't expecting any widespread dense fog,
and we should see more stratus than fog overall.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Monday] We expect stratus with MVFR CIGS to blanket
the entire Tri-state region by 06z and eventually lower into the
IFR range with time. MVFR/IFR Vsbys will also develop as CIGS
lower. Vsbys will return to VFR shortly after daybreak, but CIGS
will remain at MVFR/IFR levels at least into Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussions [330 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Dramatic changes are in store for the region during the short
range portion of the forecast. By Sunday morning, major
amplification of the long wave pattern across the CONUS will be
underway as the Polar Vortex begins to drop south into the Upper
Midwest. This will drive a 1050mb+ surface high southward into the
Northern Plains. Further south, a shortwave round the base of the
deepening trough will send low pressure from the Arklatex to the
Ohio River Valley by late Sunday, with the trailing arctic front
pushing into Alabama.

Ahead of the front, deep layer moisture will be rather limited.
However, with strong low-level forcing along the front and limited
divergence aloft, expect to see a broken band of showers along and
just behind the front. The best rain chances are expected through
the overnight hours on Sunday, ending rapidly from west to east
after midnight. Despite the arctic air pouring in behind the
front, all of the precip is expected to end before temperatures
fall enough to support anything frozen.

Following the frontal passage, the big story through the early
part of the week will be the arctic airmass progged to spread over
the region. Temperatures will fall rapidly Monday morning in the
wake of the front, with upper 20s expected in the northwestern
third of the area through mid-morning before temperatures rise
briefly during the afternoon. The morning drop below freezing will
necessitate a Freeze Watch for this portion of the area. Wind
Chill Advisory will likely be needed eventually as well. High
temperatures for all areas will likely occur just before the
frontal passage during the morning hours (pre-dawn in some areas).
Afternoon temperatures will likely only reach the 30s (outside of
a few 40s in the eastern Big Bend). It's not out of the question
that some areas of Southwest Georgia and Southeast Alabama may not
rise back above freezing during the day on Monday.

Temperatures will drop into the teens for all but immediate
coastal areas Monday night, on the strength of very strong cold
air advection. H85 at KTLH temperatures will likely bottom out in
the -6 to -9 range during the overnight hours. Northerly winds
will add to the chill, with apparent temperatures reaching single
digits by sunrise on Tuesday.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Surface high pressure will continue building southeastward Tuesday,
continuing cold air advection from a true Arctic airmass. Despite
clear skies, we'll struggle to get high temperatures in the low 30s
to near 40.  With wind gusts of 15-20 MPH it will feel even colder.
Tuesday night will see another hard freeze like Monday night. As the
high pressure pushes off the east coast Wednesday through Thursday,
winds will shift to the east and then south and once again return
warmer, moist air to the region. As an upper level disturbance
propagates through otherwise mostly zonal flow and develops another
mid and upper level trough, another cold front will begin to develop
and then move across our area later next week. Chances for rain
increase through the weekend, with widespread chances (30-50%)
Friday through Saturday.

.MARINE...
Winds will remain relatively light over the coastal waters
through Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, conditions will deteriorate
rapidly as a strong cold front crosses the region. Advisory
conditions will commence Sunday night with strong northwesterly
flow, with winds not dropping below 20 knots until late Tuesday.
Exercise Caution headlines will then likely be needed through
Wednesday before conditions improve.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday will be breezy with much drier filtering in behind an Arctic
cold front. However, minimum relative humidity values are currently
forecast to remain above critical levels. On Tuesday, although most
areas will see max temps only in the 30s, forecast dew points will
be around zero to the single digits. This will put relative humidity
values in the 20 to 25 percent range and red flag conditions are
likely to occur.

.HYDROLOGY...
Only the Apalachicola River at Blountstown and the Choctawhatchee
River near Bruce are in minor flood stage. Bruce is expected to
hover near the flood stage threshold for most of today, falling
below flood stage overnight. Blountstown is falling, but is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage through Tuesday morning.
Detailed stage information pertaining to the above, and all area
rivers can be found at the following link:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  68  41  42  19 /  10  20  50  20   0
Panama City   47  67  38  42  22 /  10  20  50  10   0
Dothan        39  65  28  35  16 /  10  20  50  10   0
Albany        41  65  35  37  15 /  10  20  50  10   0
Valdosta      44  67  46  47  19 /  10  20  50  30  10
Cross City    51  73  61  63  20 /  10  20  50  40  10
Apalachicola  50  67  43  44  22 /  10  20  50  20   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     Central Walton-Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     Baker-Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Lee-Miller-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell.

AL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE