Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Tallahassee, FL

410 
WGUS62 KTAE 061815
FFATAE

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.THE HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS THOUGH.

FLZ019-028-029-034-128-134-061915-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-140907T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MADISON-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...GREENVILLE...PERRY...MIDWAY...
MAYO...CROSS CITY...KEATON BEACH...STEINHATCHEE...SUWANNEE
215 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DIXIE...LAFAYETTE...MADISON...AND TAYLOR
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RADAR ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS RECEIVED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING IN A LITTLE
OVER AN HOUR. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

08-LAMERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The deep layer pressure pattern will remain essentially unchanged
from yesterday. Embedded within deep layer ridging and centered over
Florida, is a mid-level low pressure system sustained by robust
afternoon convection. Until we can get some substantial steering
flow established, this feedback loop will continue. Afternoon
convection, aided by the mid-level disturbance, will in turn
strengthen the mid-level disturbance, which will last through the
night and start the process over again. The best overall forcing
will again be concentrated southeast of a line through Tallahassee
and Valdosta. Further west, slightly more scattered convection will
initiate along a surface trough/low pressure axis, resultant from
both the upper disturbance and an area of the greatest afternoon
temperatures. Expect the convection west of the aforementioned line
to get a bit of a later start than the storms to the east. While
"severe" weather is not anticipated today, there will probably be
quite a bit of lightning around, and the strongest storms will carry
the potential for localized very heavy rainfall.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

The GFS and ECMWF maintain a weakness between two 500 mb ridges
through Monday, with one ridge over the northwest Gulf Coast, and
the other (the Bermuda ridge) in the western Atlantic. At the
surface, a weakening cold front (currently in MO & AR) will
essentially merge with a broad, weak area of low pressure currently
across our forecast area. This front will stall near or just north
of our forecast area Sunday night and Monday. Despite the presence
of these features, the models' Q-G forcing fields are weak- probably
because of the very broad, weak nature of these systems. However,
both models keep ample deep layer moisture across our forecast area.
This, along with diurnal mesoscale forcing (i.e. sea breeze fronts,
outflow boundaries, etc.) and moderate instability, will help keep
the coverage of deep moist convection above average for this time of
year, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Our forecast is
a blend of the latest sets of MOS and the previous forecast.  Highs
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the 70s. The
light winds throughout most of the troposphere should limit storm
organization and severity, though a pulse severe storms can't
completely be ruled out.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The rainy pattern may linger into Monday and Tuesday, before the
mid-upper level flow turns increasingly zonal and the surface
front totally dissipates. We should still see daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms, focused in the afternoon hours, from
Wednesday to Friday, but the coverage should be reduced from the
Saturday to Tuesday timeframe. With a ridge building slightly
aloft and less convection, high temperatures may warm slightly
into the lower 90s again.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible
this morning at ABY and ECP, while IFR ceilings will continue at
VLD through sunrise. Thereafter, ABY and ECP should return to VFR
while VLD will be slower to clear, with ceilings mixing through
MVFR levels. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms today, with
the best chances at VLD, TLH, and ECP.

&&

.Marine...

A flat pressure pattern will continue into early next, keeping winds
and seas low. There may be some increase in winds near the coast
each afternoon and evening, due to the strong daytime heating of the
land.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds
for the next several days. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...

Little has changed in our thinking since 24 hours ago. While the
light steering flow and high Precipitable Water values make
localized flooding a possibility, the lack of significant Q-G
forcing and the relatively high Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) values
across much of the region argue against concern for widespread
flooding. Our QPF through Monday is in the 1 to 2 inch range, which
would not be enough to significantly impact local rivers (which were
well below flood stage from the dry summer). The most vulnerable
locations for flooding continue to be urban areas and/or the small,
isolated regions that had heavy rain the past few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  73  91  74  90 /  70  40  50  30  50
Panama City   90  79  90  77  89 /  50  20  50  20  50
Dothan        92  71  93  73  91 /  50  40  50  30  50
Albany        93  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  50  30  50
Valdosta      91  72  90  72  90 /  70  40  60  30  50
Cross City    86  76  88  71  90 /  60  20  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  78  88  77  88 /  40  20  40  20  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER