Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

622 
WGUS72 KTAE 151246
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
846 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

FLC029-067-123-151400-
/O.CON.KTAE.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140515T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAFAYETTE FL-TAYLOR FL-DIXIE FL-
846 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EDT FOR
NORTHERN DIXIE...SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 840 AM EDT...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
DIXIE COUNTY...RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT AROUND 10 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF RURAL NORTHERN DIXIE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. 
FLOODING IS LIKELY ONGOING IN THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF 
FLOODING ARE OCCURRING ON SOME ROADS IN CROSS CITY. MODERATE TO 
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAFAYETTE COUNTY WHERE 
FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MAYO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 8288 2982 8293 2968 8295 2950 8341
      2965 8342 2970 8349 3016 8324 3011 8321
      3011 8312 3006 8304 2995 8292 2991 8291
      2989 8287

$$

42-DVD

809 
WGUS72 KTAE 151332
FFSTAE

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
932 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

FLC029-067-123-151342-
/O.CAN.KTAE.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140515T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAFAYETTE FL-TAYLOR FL-DIXIE FL-
932 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN DIXIE...
SOUTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES...

RAINFALL HAS TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE AREA AND NO NEW FLASH FLOODING 
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2983 8288 2982 8293 2968 8295 2950 8341
      2965 8342 2970 8349 3016 8324 3011 8321
      3011 8312 3006 8304 2995 8292 2991 8291
      2989 8287

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 AM EDT Thu May 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 10 UTC regional surface analysis showed an unusually strong cold
front (for this time of year) from just east of Dothan, through
Panama City. However, most of the rain was well east of this front,
and over our forecast area. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
a deep long wave trough over much of the Central CONUS, with
embedded short wave troughs rotating through the broader system. One
such short wave has moved off to our north, and helped
(unexpectedly) bring a quicker end to most of the rain in our
forecast area. However, there appeared to be another short wave
trough to our south that was helping (along with the cold front) to
generate more showers across the FL Big Bend. However, most of this
rain will be lighter than what we observed last night. However,
heavy showers were training over Dixie County, where a Flash Flood
watch remains in effect, and this will be monitored closely over the
next few hours. The threat of severe storms appears to be quite low,
given the marginal CAPE and bulk shear values.

Otherwise, the rain will end from west to east this morning and
early afternoon once the cold front sweeps through. Temperatures
will be much cooler than those in recent days behind this front,
with highs in the lower 70s around Dothan, to around 80 in Cross
City (where the front won't pass until later today). Gusty northwest
winds and much drier air will make it feel even a little cooler,
especially in the shade.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The cold front should be east of our CWA to start the period and
have removed the PoPs that were over our easternmost zones. A much
drier and noticeably cooler airmass will filter in through Friday
night with temps returning to near seasonal levels by Saturday
afternoon. With the dry airmass along with light winds and clear
skies, temps tonight and Friday night are forecast to dip into the
upper 40s to around 50 most inland areas. Max temps will be around
80 Friday and the mid 80s on Saturday.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The beginning of the period starts with surface high pressure
building into the area, which will allow for mild temperatures and
benign conditions throughout the weekend. On Monday, an upper
level ridge begins to move east and stall over the CWA causing a
gradual warming trend until the end of the period. Large scale
subsidence associated with this high pressure will suppress any
kind of precipitation.

&&

.Aviation [through 12z Friday]...Rain (and isolated TSRA) will end
from west to east this morning. Once the main rain ends, there will
likely be a period of LIFR cigs and MVFR vis in -DZ/BR. However, a
cold front will move east across the region, and once it passes the
cigs and vis will begin to improve. Light & variable winds ahead of
the front will become N-NW 10-15 KT with higher gusts after the
frontal passage. VFR to unlimited cigs are expected later this
afternoon. Gust NW-N winds will gradually diminish tonight.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will elevate to advisory levels this morning in the
wake of a strong cold front. These conditions will end from west
to east tonight through early Friday and gradually drop below
headline criteria by Friday afternoon. Then, light winds and low
seas should prevail at least through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Wet conditions are expected today. A much drier airmass will move
into the region behind a cold front later today & Friday, and RH
values on Friday afternoon may approach locally critical values.
However, it's unlikely that other factors (like ERC and surface
wind) will be enough for Red Flag warnings.

&&

.Hydrology...

Based on latest radar trends, the Flash Flood Watch has been
cancelled for our southeast Alabama and Florida Panhandle zones.
Most areas so far have received between 1 and 2 inches of rain.

The part of our forecast area at greatest threat for flooding
is over the southeast Big Bend. With the amount of rain that has
fallen, expect some rises on rivers, streams, and creeks,
particularly in those areas that have already received heavy
rainfall in the past few weeks.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  48  81  49  86 /  60   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  56  79  59  83 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        72  51  79  53  85 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  49  80  50  84 /  70   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  49  80  48  87 / 100  10   0   0   0
Cross City    81  54  81  50  86 / 100  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  55  80  60  80 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Lafayette-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Irwin-Lanier-
     Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...BARRY