Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF FLASH AND RIVERINE FLOODING
EXPECTED AS WELL...

.Near Term [Today]...
During the predawn hours...The large scale mid/upper pattern
remained highly amplified with ridging across west coast and
extreme Wrn Atlc with large full latitude trough dominating Conus.
assocd low over Srn Great Lakes. Increasing upper support came
with E-W sbtrpcl jet nosing down base of trough across Wrn gulf.
At surface...low over OH with cold front SSW across S/Cntrl AL and
into Gulf of Mex moving slowly Ewd. Warm boundary extended from
cold front in LA Sewd into the extreme NE Gulf south of N FL.
Meso high developed across SW GA. Increasing moisture flux and
high cape were advecting Newd ahead of cold front.

Severe storms and tornados developed north of a large outflow
boundary assocd with leading line of a small but intense MCS in
the Nrn Gulf and where low level winds backed to ESE. HP super
cells developed around midnight and trained Ewd along a line in
Walton county just north of this outflow boundary. Tornadoes were
noted in association Wly rear inflow jet and downward momentum
related to precip loading. Satellite showed very cold overshooting
cloud tops in MCS drifting EWD with increasingly tall CBs
advecting Newd under strong moisture flux above otherwise shallow
stable layer and into Sen edge of MCS aiding in cell mergers and
convergence. 30kt SLY low level jet in area providing confluent
flow and strong shear will maintain forward propagating MCS rest
of overnight. Radar showed increasingly impressive lighting plots.
These combinations provided a very favorable environment for
severe thunderstorms...strong winds...tornadoes...and especially
heavy rain and flooding across the Wrn counties of the Panhandle
and SE AL. Flash flood warnings were issued for portions of SE AL
as well as Walton County with rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per
hour down to 1 to 2 inches across SE AL/SW GA.

During the rest of today...upper low will move only slowly Newd.
With decreasing upper support...cold front will move ever slowly
Ewd slowing down especially east of the Apalachicola River
reaching the Ern Big Bend after sundown spreading convection
across the area during the day. CAM CAPE/updraft/UH/Graupel
indices all support at least an isold threat of severe wx
including isold tornadoes and max QPF guidance would support
flooding in both cases both specially west of a line from Albany
to Apalachicola as a squall continues to advance from west to
east. Will show sharp 70-40% NW-SE POP gradient. Flash flood watch
remains in place for all but Ern counties into this eve. See
hydrology section for more details. With front lingering over Wrn
counties for much of the day...sharp temp gradient from mid 70s SE
AL to mid 80S SE Big Bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...
The closed mid-upper level slow moving low will finally eject to the
northeast and across the Great Lakes region on Thursday. Even so,
the local area will remain under deep southwest flow. The associated
surface cold front will move into our Ern zones tonight and slowly
push ESE of our CWFA on Thurs. Until then...rain chances will
continue and with saturated grounds..there will be an accompanying
flash flooding threat which is detailed below in the hydrology
section. Will go with 30-60% SW-NE POP gradient tonight...30-50%
NW-SE POP gradient on Thurs and 20-60% Thurs night

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The stubborn surface low that has been stuck over the CONUS for
the past few days finally begins to lift into eastern Canada by
Friday. The associated trailing cold front will finally push
through our area for good bringing with it the chance for showers
on Friday afternoon. Behind the front ridging will settle in
place. Rain chances will be minimal and southerly flow at the end
of the period will bring sticky conditions with high temperatures
in the upper 80s and dewpoints near 60.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] ...Ongoing thunderstorms with severe weather
over Wrn Panhandle will gradually move eastward today making it
to our eastern terminals such as TLH and VAD during the morning.
MVFR restrictions will prevail throughout the TAF period with the
exception of IFR restrictions between til sunrise. It appears to
be mainly a CIG threat, but within heavy showers and thunderstorms
its possible to get LIFR VSBYS and CIGs. After sunrise onshore
winds will be gusty, generally sustained at 10-15 knots gusting at
20 knots. After 02z...CIGS and to a lesser extend VSBYS will begin
to deteriorate especially Ern terminals closest to front.

&&

.Marine...
Strong and gusty onshore winds over the Panhandle waters justified a
Small Craft Advisory which should end soon after sunrise. Exercise
caution level winds are expected into this morning. After the
cold front passes thru this evening, offshore winds will prevail
through the weekend until high pressure builds in the Gulf on
Sunday switching our prevailing winds out of the east.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall totals so far for this event are around 2 to 4 inches
across our area with higher totals around 5 to 7 inches in the
Florida Panhandle. Through the rest of the predawn hours, the
Panhandle, SE Alabama, and SW Georgia may see another 3-5 inches
of rainfall, with noticeably lower accumulations possible in the
Big Bend and in south central Georgia. With rain continuing thru
today, flash flooding will be possible.

Flooding continues on the Suwannee River in the eastern Big Bend,
but most other rivers have receded since our previous rainfall
event. However, rainfall totals will be sufficient to bring many
rivers into minor flood stage once again and many rivers have
already begun rising again. There is uncertainty about how much the
rivers will rise, since much of the rain hasn't fallen yet.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  67  80  58  75 /  60  40  50  50  70
Panama City   78  63  76  59  70 /  70  40  40  50  60
Dothan        79  60  76  54  74 /  70  40  30  30  30
Albany        82  63  77  56  75 /  70  50  40  30  40
Valdosta      87  67  80  58  73 /  50  40  50  50  60
Cross City    85  69  82  63  75 /  40  30  50  60  70
Apalachicola  78  66  75  59  70 /  60  30  50  60  70

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland
     Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-
     Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...HOLLINGSWORTH
HYDROLOGY...BLOCK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
341 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW MIRAMAR BEACH     30.39N 86.38W
04/30/2014                   WALTON             FL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOUSE SURROUNDED BY WATER ON SHORE DRIVE

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLACK                   31.01N 85.74W
04/30/2014                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            AUSTIN ROAD NEAR COUNTY ROAD 6 NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF
            BLACK IS FLOODING.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SLOCOMB                 31.11N 85.59W
04/30/2014                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY 52 EAST NEAR SLOCOMB HAS WATER COVERING PORTIONS
            OF THE ROAD.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GENEVA                  31.04N 85.88W
04/30/2014                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            PORTIONS OF GOATHILL ROAD...NORTH WHITNEY ROAD...AND EAST
            HEART ROAD ARE FLOODED

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MARIANNA                30.77N 85.24W
04/30/2014                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT WED APR 30 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW COTTONWOOD        31.04N 85.35W
04/30/2014                   HOUSTON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OTTER POND OVERFLOWING ONTO BUNTIN ROAD NEAR COTTONWOOD

&&

DVD