Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 15, 2014, 1:43 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2014, 1:43 PM EDT (17:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2014, 9:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 161 counties
Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA, Accomack County, VA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 1:50 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 1:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Essex, Union | 19 min |
| Jul 15, 2:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Howard, Montgomery, Prince George's | 38 min |
| Jul 15, 2:12 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Hudson | 3 hr |
| Jul 15, 2:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean | 51 min |
| Jul 15, 2:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel, Prince George's | 60 min |
| Jul 15, 2:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth | 41 min |
| Jul 15, 2:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Dorchester | 39 min |
| Jul 15, 2:40 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 3 hr |
| Jul 15, 2:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Nassau | 23 min |
| Jul 15, 2:54 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel | 16 min |
| Jul 15, 2:55 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Nassau, Queens | 3 hr |
| Jul 15, 3:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's | 59 min |
| Jul 15, 3:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Anne Arundel | 16 min |
| Jul 15, 3:14 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Monmouth, Ocean | 7 hr |
| Jul 15, 3:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | New Castle | 42 min |
| Jul 15, 3:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Nassau | 21 min |
| Jul 15, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Halifax | 26 min |
| Jul 15, 3:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Kent, New Castle | 63 min |
| Jul 15, 3:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Southampton, City of Franklin, City of Suffolk | 40 min |
| Jul 15, 4:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | City of Virginia Beach | 31 min |
| Jul 15, 4:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Caroline, Queen Anne's, Talbot | 60 min |
| Jul 15, 4:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Kent, New Castle | 56 min |
| Jul 15, 4:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset | 64 min |
| Jul 15, 4:27 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AKQ | Brunswick, Greensville | 35 min |
| Jul 15, 5:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset | 64 min |
| Jul 15, 5:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Camden, Monmouth, Ocean | 61 min |
| Jul 15, 6:11 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean and 1 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 6:11 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Burlington, Monmouth, Ocean | 50 min |
| Jul 15, 6:44 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Ocean | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 7:17 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Kings, Nassau, Queens | 3 hr |
| Jul 15, 7:22 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania | 3 hr |
| Jul 15, 7:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Spotsylvania | 31 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 21 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1120 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 730 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 111 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 3.4
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 1:51 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min | |
| Jul 15, 4:41 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 94 min | |
| Jul 15, 7:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 56 min | |
| Jul 15, 1:23 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 97 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2014Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.