Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 993
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT for 17 counties in Florida. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 14, 2014, 2:14 PM EDT (18:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 14, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Brevard County, FL, Broward County, FL, Collier County, FL, DeSoto County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Polk County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Seminole County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 164 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -105 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1423 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 13 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 69 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 61 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
780
ACUS11 KWNS 141814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141814
FLZ000-141915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141814Z - 141915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS HAIL...WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS UNLIKELY AS THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOCALIZED/MARGINAL.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WAS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS CNTRL
FL ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE...WITH RADAR BASE VELOCITY DATA
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED. A 44 KT GUST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT
ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 1741Z. FARTHER S...MORNING CLOUD
COVER IS NOW QUICKLY ERODING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WARMING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM ORGANIZATION BEYOND
PULSE TO INTERMITTENT MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODE TYPES DEVELOPING
ALONG OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR DOWNBURST WINDS. HAIL MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.
..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/14/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27227994 26148034 25468068 25828123 26178155 27058197
27888206 28478162 28868111 28828081 27227994Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.