Alert archive / South Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 992

June 14, 20146 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 14, 2014, 11:24 AM CDT for 6 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 14, 2014, 11:24 AM CDT (16:24 UTC)
Expired: Jun 14, 2014, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Buffalo County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Todd County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 180 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KRAP), launched 12:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1489 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -49 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

265 
ACUS11 KWNS 141625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141624 
SDZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 141624Z - 141800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR AT LEAST THE NEAR
TERM.  SEVERE RISK BEYOND 18-19Z IS MORE UNCLEAR...AND IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER WAVE OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT...ACCOMPANYING A
SMALL-SCALE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM UPPER TROUGHING NOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.  THIS PROBABLY OCCURRED AS IT
ENCOUNTERED A BETTER INFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SUPPORTING
GREATER CAPE THAN EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM RAPID CITY/...ON
THE NOSE OF VERY WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  IT
APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY
FURTHER AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...PERHAPS
INCLUDING THE PIERRE/WINNER AND CHAMBERLAIN AREAS BY 18-19Z...BEFORE
WEAKENING ONCE AGAIN WITH INFLOW OF MORE STABLE AIR FARTHER EAST
INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BE ROOTED
ABOVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR/MEAD.. 06/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   43810163 44030114 44539966 44129892 43479969 43070091
            43350153 43810163

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 13, 7:11 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bennett, Butte, Custer, Fall River, Haakon, Harding and 9 more	2 hr
Jun 13, 9:26 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bennett, Corson, Custer, Dewey, Fall River, Haakon and 10 more	94 min
Jun 14, 7:14 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Buffalo, Haakon, Hand, Hughes, Hyde, Jackson and 7 more	2 hr
Jun 14, 1:57 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Union, Yankton	2 hr
Jun 14, 5:10 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Clay, Union	7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.