Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 982
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 13, 2014, 12:48 PM MDT for 14 counties in New Mexico; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 57 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 13, 2014, 12:48 PM MDT (18:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 13, 2014, 1:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Loving County, TX, Reeves County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 264 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -289 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1870 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 118 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
557
ACUS11 KWNS 131849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131848
TXZ000-NMZ000-131945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...FAR W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131848Z - 131945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM AND FAR
W TX ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE BY 20Z.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW TOWERING CU PERCOLATING
OVER THE SACRAMENTO/SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF NM...AND THE DAVIS MTNS
OF W TX...WITH LIGHTNING TRENDS SLOWLY INCREASING. WIDESPREAD
STRATUS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IS
LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING...BUT HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF ERODING
MORE RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST WEAK CINH IS LIKELY IN PLACE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE AS TEMPERATURES
APPROACH THE 80S F.
LATEST THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
NEAR/JUST E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PROGRESS EWD INTO A MORE
MOIST AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE
EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO MODERATELY STRONG WLYS IN
MIDLEVELS...AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS VIA STORM/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
MIDLEVEL WLYS DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO FAR W TX...WHERE
COVERAGE MAY ALSO BE MORE ISOLATED...LENDING SOME UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A WW.
..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 34640310 31970315 30390343 30200389 30410441 31470521
33520560 35050557 36440520 36910498 36980311 36920305
34640310SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 6:36 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mora | 54 min |
| Jun 13, 12:05 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Catron, Cibola, Los Alamos, Sandoval, Santa Fe and 4 more | 55 min |
| Jun 13, 1:27 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Chaves, Colfax, Curry, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 12, 8:46 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bee, Bexar and 33 more | 89 min |
| Jun 12, 10:44 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bee, DeWitt, Dimmit, Frio, Goliad and 10 more | 3 hr |
| Jun 13, 12:41 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Bee, Calhoun, Duval, Goliad, Jackson and 9 more | 94 min |
| Jun 13, 4:09 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Frio, La Salle, Live Oak and 5 more | 66 min |
| Jun 13, 5:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Armstrong, Bailey, Borden, Briscoe, Carson and 38 more | 63 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.