Mesoscale Discussion 976

Issued

Jun 12, 2014, 6:45 PM CDT (23:45 UTC)

Expired

Jun 12, 2014, 8:15 PM CDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

131 
ACUS11 KWNS 122346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122345 
TXZ000-130115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 288...

VALID 122345Z - 130115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 288 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION FOR ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD STILL INCREASE IN UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

DISCUSSION...DUE TO LINGERING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER AND
MORE FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DISCRETE STORMS.  BUT IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE MIXED LAYER
CAPE /IN EXCESS OF 3000 J PER KG/...AND MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...STORMS HAVE BEEN
INTENSE...OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...AND PROBABLY GENERATING LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

THE MORE SUSTAINED STORMS...NOW SOUTH OF ABILENE AND JUNCTION...AND
MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FORT HOOD...HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW.  HOWEVER...AS UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
COMMENCES ALONG OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THAN SOUTH...WITH AT LEAST SOME ACCELERATION IN SPEED.

..KERR.. 06/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32330036 32509972 32389894 31789663 30959642 29519798
            29519930 29660001 31350131 32330036

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.