Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 971
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 12, 2014, 11:47 AM CDT for 4 counties in Arkansas; 4 counties in Illinois; 23 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 12, 2014, 11:47 AM CDT (16:47 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 12, 2014, 1:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 31 counties
Baxter County, AR, Clay County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Union County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Madison County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Perry County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO
The radar
The Paducah radar (KPAH), 192 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 461 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -225 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1279 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 78 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
700
ACUS11 KWNS 121647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121647
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN MO...FAR N-CNTRL/NERN AR...FAR SWRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121647Z - 121815Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
EXIST ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO AND INTO SRN IL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY MO SWD
INTO BAXTER COUNTY AR /AS OF 1640Z/ HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HRS...AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MCV
OVER SWRN MO. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION
WAS NOTED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN PORTIONS OF MO...WITH AN EFFECTIVE COLD
FRONT/OUTFLOW COMPOSITE BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS SERN INTO CNTRL
MO. STRONGER HEATING WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF MO AND
NRN AR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID-70S F AS OF 16Z. THIS
CORRIDOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG PROBABLE...AND
SHOULD SUPPORT STORM SUSTENANCE INTO SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL. AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE TSTM LINE WITH EWD
PROGRESSION. THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...BUT GIVEN CONVECTIVE MODE CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THIS THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS WELL.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...THE SVR RISK APPEARS TO
BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/12/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36199133 36169210 36309244 36819252 37119252 37679160
38149057 38238961 37868912 37518898 36388962 36199034
36199133SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 3:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Greene and 17 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.