Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 968

June 11, 201410 counties in Kansas; 20 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2014, 11:41 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; 20 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 11, 2014, 11:41 PM CDT (04:41 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2014, 1:15 AM CDT
In force: 94 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 30 counties

Butler County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Creek County, OK, Custer County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK

The radar

The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 13 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287Jun 12, 1:00 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1021 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -307 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1980 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 116 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

036 
ACUS11 KWNS 120442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120441 
OKZ000-KSZ000-120615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KANSAS...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 285...286...

VALID 120441Z - 120615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
285...286...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT MAY IMPACT WICHITA AND THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 286.

DISCUSSION...SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN ACCOMPANYING A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE MORE OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE 50 KT EASTWARD MOTION OF THE NORTHERN COLD POOL WILL TAKE IT
ACROSS THE WICHITA AREA AROUND 05Z...THEN EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH
DURING THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.  EAST OF WICHITA...HOWEVER... INFLOW
OF AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MAY BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...AS
NEW UPDRAFTS BECOME GRADUALLY WEAKER.  AT THE SAME TIME THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SURFACE GUST FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN.

THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY HAVE LONGER
LIFE...AND MAY TAKE ON MORE OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE
OKLAHOMA CITY AREA AS IT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.  THIS WILL BE AIDED BY FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A
40+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...AS IT SLOWLY VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH 06-08Z.

..KERR.. 06/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35769978 35899889 36269856 36669834 37269825 37759794
            38279786 38769773 39029728 38339662 37629650 36129601
            35229697 35059814 35139952 35769978

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 7:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ellis, Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks and 3 more	33 min
Jun 11, 7:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barton, Ellsworth, Jewell, Lincoln, Mitchell, Osborne and 3 more	4 hr
Jun 11, 8:41 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Butler, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Harper and 12 more	94 min
Jun 11, 9:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Comanche, Cowley and 18 more	6 hr
Jun 12, 12:59 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Creek, Haskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Nowata and 9 more	5 hr
Jun 12, 2:12 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Creek, Custer, Garvin and 28 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.