Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 950

June 10, 20147 counties in Indiana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 10, 2014, 7:49 PM EDT for 7 counties in Indiana. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2014, 7:49 PM EDT (23:49 UTC)
Expired
Jun 10, 2014, 9:15 PM EDT
In force
86 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Brown County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Greene County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Owen County, IN

The radar

The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2014-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 12:00Z on 2014-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 115 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
637 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
255 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

960 
ACUS11 KWNS 102350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102349 
INZ000-110115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102349Z - 110115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK WARM
FRONT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN TIME AND SPACE.

DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WEAK WARM FRONT AROUND 25
N SLO TO 25 S BMG. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST SW OF
BMG HAS HAD WEAK ROTATIONAL SIGNATURES ON RADAR AND APPARENT TORNADO
REPORTS PER WFO IND. WITH THIS ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...ENHANCED 0-1 KM SRH TO AROUND 200 M2/S2 PER IND VWP DATA
HAS CLEARLY BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK. STILL...THE
LONGEVITY OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE TEMPERED BY A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE BULK OF TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AOB 6 DEG
C/KM.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/10/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39468642 39298611 38928628 38658657 38518714 38638735
            39008717 39438686 39468642

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.