Alert archive / Montana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 930

June 9, 20144 counties in Montana

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2014, 5:09 PM MDT for 4 counties in Montana. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2014, 5:09 PM MDT (23:09 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2014, 6:45 PM MDT
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Blaine County, MT, Daniels County, MT, Phillips County, MT, Valley County, MT

The radar

The Glasgow radar (KGGW), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Glasgow Intl Airport, MT (KGGW), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2014-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Glasgow Intl Airport, MT at 12:00Z on 2014-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 224 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2295 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
224 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

145 
ACUS11 KWNS 092309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092309 
MTZ000-100045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 092309Z - 100045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP JUST ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. MEAGER
BUOYANCY S OF THE BORDER SUGGESTS THIS RISK SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED
AND SPATIALLY CONFINED.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE NOTED OVER FAR
SW SASKATCHEWAN WITH ONE CELL ABOUT TO CROSS THE BORDER INTO MT.
THIS CONVECTION IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE ALONG A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
AND FED BY UPSTREAM 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS
QUITE DRY IN MT /DEW POINTS LARGELY IN THE 30S/. BUT STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AIDED BY UPPER 70S-MIDDLE 80S SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SAMPLED IN GGW VWP
DATA SHOULD SUPPORT A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK THROUGH ABOUT
02Z. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN SUCH A MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS
SHOULD YIELD RAPID DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   49030521 48260622 48210834 48360917 48740959 49030954
            49030521

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Montana, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.