Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 9

January 7, 2014Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 7, 2014, 10:58 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, New York. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 7, 2014, 10:58 AM EST (15:58 UTC)
Expired
Jan 7, 2014, 3:00 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-01-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-01-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -22 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
983 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
237 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

703 
ACUS11 KWNS 071559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071558 
NYZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 071558Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...ONTARIO LAKE BAND WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT INTENSITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND BAND DEPTH DECREASES.

DISCUSSION...THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LOW-MID TROPOSPHERE
IS NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE INVERSION HEIGHT NEAR
700 MB PER 12Z BUF AND ALB SOUNDINGS.  INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH TIME FROM SW-NE AS THE PRIMARY LOBE OF
COLDEST AIR PIVOTS NEWD AND WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.  THIS WILL
BEGIN TO REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTIVE PLUME OFF ERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKEWISE BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.  UNTIL THEN...ONLY MINOR WOBBLES ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE MAIN LAKE BAND...AND HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD STILL
EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY NY.  TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON AND 20-35 KT WSWLY-WLY WINDS
WILL PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

..THOMPSON.. 01/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   44037629 44107575 44107535 44027518 43817526 43757550
            43677624 43687674 43787685 43907681 44037629

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 7, 12:32 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lewis4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.