Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 862

June 6, 20144 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 6, 2014, 3:06 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 6, 2014, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired: Jun 6, 2014, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 114 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 52 counties

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Henry County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Marengo County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Calhoun County, GA, Chattahoochee County, GA, Clay County, GA, Crisp County, GA, Dooly County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Lee County, GA, Marion County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Schley County, GA, Stewart County, GA, Sumter County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Tift County, GA, Turner County, GA, Webster County, GA, Wilcox County, GA, Worth County, GA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Madison County, MS, Newton County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Maxwell AFB radar (KMXX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247Jun 6, 6:50 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1535 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 868 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 37 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

434 
ACUS11 KWNS 062007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062006 
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT FRI JUN 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL/GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 062006Z - 062200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD SWD
FROM WW 240. THIS COULD WARRANT SWD EXTENSION OF THE ONGOING WW...OR
POSSIBLY THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS TO THE S OF
INTERSTATE 20 -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F -- IS SUPPORTING
AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. INCREASING-COVERAGE CONVECTION
FARTHER N WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE INTO THIS UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHILE
SOME NLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FOSTERS A SWD PROGRESSION
OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT OF 4-7-KM-AGL FLOW
PER BMX VWP MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER
DEEP ASCENT FAVORING MORE ROBUST UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THE
OVERALL SVR RISK MAY BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   32318401 31868323 31328349 31538611 31949099 32809132
            32708714 32318401

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 6, 11:22 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne and 24 more	83 min
Jun 6, 11:51 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Autauga, Barbour, Bibb, Blount, Bullock, Calhoun and 44 more	7 hr
Jun 6, 2:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Chilton and 28 more	92 min
Jun 6, 5:37 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Autauga, Butler, Dallas, Lowndes, Marengo, Montgomery and 2 more	83 min
Jun 6, 6:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale and 6 more	6 hr
Jun 5, 9:13 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Burke, Columbia, Glascock, Jefferson, Lincoln, McDuffie and 2 more	92 min
Jun 6, 2:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bibb, Bleckley, Bulloch and 50 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.