Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 5, 20144 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 5, 2014, 5:41 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 5, 2014, 5:41 PM EST (22:41 UTC)
Expired
Jan 5, 2014, 9:45 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Franklin County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Carroll County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-01-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2014-01-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -21 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1456 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

918 
ACUS11 KWNS 052242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052241 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-060245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CST SUN JAN 05 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY...VT...MUCH OF NH...WRN ME

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 052241Z - 060245Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAINFALL RATES AOA 0.05 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING/NIGHT FROM UPSTATE NY INTO WRN ME.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL SLY JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 50+ KT
AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS
THIS OCCURS...7 DEG C WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 850 MB WILL BECOME
POSITIONED ABOVE SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IN
ADDITION...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL AID IN SUSTAINING
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SPREADING NEWD FROM UPSTATE NY INTO VT/NH AND
WRN ME. AS A RESULT...FREEZING RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY EXCEEDING 0.05
IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/NIGHT. WITH TIME...SELY SURFACE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...SUCH THAT FREEZING RAIN WILL COME TO AN END OVER NY
DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD...AND VT/NH/WRN ME FROM 06-12Z.

..GARNER.. 01/05/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44507000 41887414 42097533 43887549 45307415 45427049
            44507000

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.