Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 697

May 25, 20148 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2014, 2:02 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas; 27 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 25, 2014, 2:02 PM CDT (19:02 UTC)
Expired
May 25, 2014, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%
All 35 counties

Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Atoka County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Coal County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Kay County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 48 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2014-05-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 664 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2014-05-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -2 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
664 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-100 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
803 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
87 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

835 
ACUS11 KWNS 251903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251902 
OKZ000-KSZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 251902Z - 252100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING TO THE E OF A
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD RELATED TO EARLIER GENERATIONS OF
CONVECTION TO THE W/SW. MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OUN RAOB TO ACCOUNT
FOR SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S TO AROUND 70F SUGGEST SBCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG WITH
NEAR-ZERO INHIBITION IN AREAS OF STRONGER INSOLATION. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES
ATTENDANT TO THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AND WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE
AXES IN THE BACKGROUND SSELY FLOW PATTERN FARTHER E. RELATIVELY
MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 30 KT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM TAKING PLACE. HOWEVER...A FEW WET
MICROBURSTS MAY OCCUR...WITH ONE OR TWO INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE GIVEN WATER LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH 1.50-1.75-INCH PW
VALUES PER GPS DATA.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35469687 37489739 38259656 37539537 35919476 34859470
            34149539 34419621 35469687

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 25, 1:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCTexas3 hr
May 25, 3:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeaver, Texas8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.