Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 643
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2014, 5:03 PM CDT for 8 counties in Illinois; 16 counties in Indiana; 50 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 21, 2014, 5:03 PM CDT (22:03 UTC)
- Expired
- May 21, 2014, 6:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 74 counties
Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Scott County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lee County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Powell County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Woodford County, KY
The radar
The Louisville radar (KLVX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 43 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -567 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1236 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 238 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 246 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
406
ACUS11 KWNS 212204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212203
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN KY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
IL/INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 212203Z - 212330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF KY...AND PERHAPS FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/ORGANIZE WITHIN
A CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IL/SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH OTHER
MORE ISOLATED /LIKELY INITIALLY ELEVATED/ ACTIVITY ALONG I-64 IN
SOUTHERN IL. THE PRIMARY SCENARIO SHOULD BE THE CONTINUED
ORGANIZED/FORWARD ACCELERATION OF AN EVOLVING MCS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA TO ALONG THE OH RIVER IN VICINITY OF NORTHERN KY/EXTREME
SOUTHWEST OH. AIDED BY EXPANDING SURFACE COLD POOL /ALREADY EVIDENT
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA/...THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE/LIKELY
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT IS WARM/RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN KY. LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE EVOLVING MCS
/AND MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN IL/...BUT DAMAGING
WINDS MAY STEADILY BECOME A MORE PREVALENT CONCERN ACROSS KY THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WITH THE ACCELERATING MCS/EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS.
..GUYER/MEAD.. 05/21/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 38468993 38578768 38588670 38858533 37828256 37348259
37258467 37828759 37858880 38468993SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 8:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall and 1 more | 84 min |
| May 20, 9:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Jo Daviess, Kane, Kendall and 4 more | 94 min |
| May 20, 11:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cook, Lake | 97 min |
| May 21, 1:27 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 17 more | 93 min |
| May 21, 11:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Iroquois, Vermilion | 3 hr |
| May 21, 1:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Cass, Champaign, Christian, Clark and 27 more | 2 hr |
| May 21, 2:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Champaign, Clark, Coles, Cumberland, DeWitt, Douglas and 10 more | 5 hr |
| May 21, 3:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bond, Calhoun, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay and 44 more | 2 hr |
| May 21, 5:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jefferson and 7 more | 13 hr |
| May 21, 6:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Champaign, Clark, Douglas, Edgar, Vermilion | 85 min |
| May 20, 8:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 18 more | 7 hr |
| May 21, 1:56 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Huntington and 12 more | 94 min |
| May 21, 3:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Kosciusko, LaGrange, Marshall and 4 more | 34 min |
| May 21, 12:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 41 more | 9 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.