Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 608

May 15, 201420 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT for 20 counties in Florida. It was in force for 60 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT (19:15 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2014, 4:15 PM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 5%

Counties Brevard County, FL, Broward County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Highlands County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Martin County, FL, Okeechobee County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 76 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 352 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 706 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 78 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

513 
ACUS11 KWNS 151916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151915 
FLZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151915Z - 152015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A STRONG WET DOWNBURST OR BRIEF SPIN-UP IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN A VERY MOIST/WARM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PW VALUES OVER 2
INCHES RESIDE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
J/KG. GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /LESS THAN 25 KT EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR/ AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONTS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW BRIEF/WEAK
SPIN-UPS AND/OR WET DOWNBURSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AFTER PEAK HEATING OCCURS AND AS STORMS BEGIN TO
MOVE OFFSHORE. THE BRIEF/UNORGANIZED NATURE OF ANY STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 05/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29958139 29488091 28268033 26637991 25668006 25558035
            25688062 26868138 28048178 28718199 29488212 29968185
            29958139

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.