Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 596

May 13, 20144 counties in Indiana; 23 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 13, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT for 4 counties in Indiana; 23 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 13, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT (20:00 UTC)
Expired: May 13, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 27 counties

Adams County, IN, Jay County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Allen County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Darke County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Henry County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lucas County, OH, Marion County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Ottawa County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 159 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 209 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -124 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1231 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

740 
ACUS11 KWNS 132000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132000 
OHZ000-INZ000-132200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN INDIANA AND ADJACENT NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 132000Z - 132200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.  ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGEST CELLS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN INDIANA ATTM...WITH A SECOND ARCING OUTFLOW
CROSSING NWRN OH.  THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST
ACTIVE CLUSTERS OF STORMS RIGHT NOW -- ONE CROSSING SERN LOWER MI
AND THE OTHER ADVANCING ACROSS ERN INDIANA TOWARD WRN OH.  THE MOST
VIGOROUS ACTIVITY S OF THE LOWER MI CONVECTIVE CLUSTER /WHICH HAS
STARTED SHIFTING INTO ONTARIO/ IS ONGOING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
THESE TWO BOUNDARIES /INVOF ADAMS AND JAY COUNTIES IN INDIANA AND
ADJACENT VAN WERT...PAULDING...AND MERCER COUNTIES IN OH/ -- WHERE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR.

THAT SAID...STORMS OVERALL HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED LARGELY
DISORGANIZED...REDEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS AS COOL AIR REPEATEDLY
UNDERCUTS ONGOING STORMS LEADING TO SUCCESSIVE NEW UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER E.  EXPECT SIMILAR TRENDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE TO
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/13/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   41668256 40618291 39708482 40038524 41148499 41718414
            41668256

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 13, 12:37 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown and 64 more	113 min
May 12, 8:30 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashland, Carroll, Columbiana, Cuyahoga, Erie, Huron and 6 more	60 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.