Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 511
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2014, 4:41 PM CDT for 11 counties in Kansas; 16 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 7, 2014, 4:41 PM CDT (21:41 UTC)
- Expired
- May 7, 2014, 5:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 27 counties
Barber County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Reno County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 605 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -552 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1267 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 421 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 395 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
297
ACUS11 KWNS 072141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072141
KSZ000-OKZ000-072245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL OK...SCNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 123...
VALID 072141Z - 072245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS NRN OK AND SCNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. AN EXTENSION OF WW 123 TO
INCLUDE PARTS OF NW OK MAY BE NEEDED. IN ADDITION...WW ISSUANCE MAY
BECOME NECESSARY TO THE NORTH OF WW 123 ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL KS.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPLY DEFINED DRYLINE
EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NW TX ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THESE STORMS HAVE ACCESS TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
OF WRN OK WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE.
IN ADDITION...THE FREDERICK OK WSR-88D VWP SHOWS A GRADUALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND A NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWEST 2 KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS. THE
LATEST WRF-HRRR CONFIRMS THIS BY MOVING A COUPLE OF LIFT SPLIT
SUPERCELLS NNEWD INTO SCNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONG
INSTABILITY IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE
INTENSE UPDRAFTS. ALSO...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 25 TO 35
DEGREES SHOULD HELP ACCELERATE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS MAKING WIND DAMAGE A
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/07/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 34729882 35459765 36829704 38189638 38649675 38599785
37589870 35879947 35169960 34729882SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 12:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne | 2 hr |
| May 7, 1:37 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins | 7 hr |
| May 7, 5:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Rawlins | 85 min |
| May 7, 5:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barton, Butler, Ellsworth, Harper, Harvey, Kingman and 8 more | 6 hr |
| May 7, 6:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Dickinson, Geary, Marshall, Morris, Nemaha and 4 more | 5 hr |
| May 7, 1:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Jackson, Kiowa and 3 more | 66 min |
| May 7, 2:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche and 17 more | 8 hr |
| May 7, 6:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Cotton, Garfield, Garvin and 15 more | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.