Alert archive / Indiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 49

February 1, 201421 counties in Indiana; 17 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2014, 7:14 AM EST for 21 counties in Indiana; 17 counties in Michigan; Fulton County, Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 1, 2014, 7:14 AM EST (12:14 UTC)
Expired
Feb 1, 2014, 12:15 PM EST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 40 counties

Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, Lake County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Newton County, IN, Noble County, IN, Porter County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Fulton County, OH, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2014-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2014-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 144 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
464 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
93 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
305 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

963 
ACUS11 KWNS 011215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011214 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA...S CENTRAL AND SE LOWER MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 011214Z - 011715Z

SUMMARY...A BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES NEAR 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND LOWER
MI THIS MORNING...AND PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE ZONE OF
FREEZING RAIN TO THE S WILL SHRINK AS WARMING OCCURS FROM SE-NW
ACROSS INDIANA/OH THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND OF SNOW IS SPREADING NEWD FROM NE
IL INTO NW INDIANA...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ENEWD OVER
SRN/SERN LOWER MI THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.  THE SNOW
BAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF A 45-50 KT SWLY LLJ...AND THIS REGIME WILL
SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING IN TANDEM WITH SURFACE CYCLONE NOW
APPROACHING CENTRAL MO.  A DEEP SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYER AND
THE INFLUX OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AOA 1 INCH PER HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES.  S OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND...WARMING LOW-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A QUICKLY SHRINKING ZONE OF FREEZING
RAIN AND A SHARPER TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING/RAIN TO SNOW BY
LATE MORNING.

..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   42088313 41678394 40668618 40558703 40748746 41158752
            41568746 41838691 42158605 42698436 43018311 43088256
            42848241 42088313

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.