Mesoscale Discussion 39

Issued

Jan 28, 2014, 4:45 PM EST (21:45 UTC)

Expired

Jan 28, 2014, 9:15 PM EST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

247 
ACUS11 KWNS 282145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282145 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-290215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 PM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN GA...CNTRL/ERN/SRN SC...ERN
NC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 282145Z - 290215Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT REGION OF NC/SC/GA TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WHILE PRECIPITATION IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM
CNTRL GA WSWWD TO COASTAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY LIES WITHIN THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CNTRL/ERN-CONUS
TROUGH...WITH ASCENT BEING ENHANCED AROUND AN IMPULSE CROSSING THE
MID MS VALLEY AS PORTRAYED BY RECENT MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. AS
THE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND THE
TROUGH...STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE
MCD AREA WHILE MODEST SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST ENHANCES WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR
POSSIBLE.

SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FROM PARTS OF CNTRL SC TO
CNTRL GA...THOUGH SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MODEST SFC COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 32F DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BREED A NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW. THE 18Z RAOBS
AT MHX AND CHS HIGHLIGHT A 2.5-6C ELEVATED WARM LAYER CAPABLE OF
COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. INCREASING WAA ALOFT
SHOULD MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER NEAR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
THE CAROLINAS...YIELDING A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.
FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE PIEDMONT FROM CNTRL GA INTO SC AND
NC...FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A COOLER PROFILE
ALOFT WILL MORE LIKELY SUPPORT SLEET...AND PERHAPS SNOW OVER THE
NWRN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

..COHEN.. 01/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON   33657843 32957961 32608083 32538261 32788384 33368340
            34218103 36127715 36257595 35677539 34997583 34617664
            33657843

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.