Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 2

January 3, 2014Barnstable County, Bristol County, Plymouth County, Massachusetts; 6 counties in New York; 5 counties in Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2014, 3:39 AM EST for Barnstable County, Bristol County, Plymouth County, Massachusetts; 6 counties in New York; 5 counties in Rhode Island. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 3, 2014, 3:39 AM EST (08:39 UTC)
Expired
Jan 3, 2014, 7:45 AM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barnstable County, MA, Bristol County, MA, Plymouth County, MA, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Queens County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-01-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2014-01-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 605 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
459 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
605 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
853 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

999 
ACUS11 KWNS 030840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030839 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-031245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEW ENGLAND COAST

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 030839Z - 031245Z

SUMMARY...PEAK INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SNOW IS OCCURRING
NOW...WITH GRADUAL W-E DECREASE EXPECTED ALONG SE NEW ENGLAND COAST
NEAR AND AFTER 11Z.  SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MA/CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET WHERE NW
EDGE OF MAIN SNOW BAND WILL BE ENHANCED LOCALLY BY OCEAN EFFECTS.

DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WELL
TO THE S OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PROGRESS ENEWD
FROM THE NRN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  AN INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND IS HELPING PRODUCE HIGH
SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS OF NEAR 20:1 WHICH IS ENHANCING SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION RATES.  ADDITIONALLY...THIS VERY COLD AIR MASS IS
RESULTING IN A PRONOUNCED OCEAN-EFFECT ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL RATES
ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST...SPECIFICALLY ERN MA/CAPE AND
NANTUCKET WHERE THE RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN INFLUENCE EXTENDS UPWARD
INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.  THE PRIMARY LOW-MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC BAND WILL ALSO BRUSH THE SAME AREAS AS THE CYCLONE
INTENSIFIES...THOUGH THE DURATION OF THIS LARGER-SCALE ENHANCEMENT
TO SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED BY THE REASONABLY QUICK ENEWD
PROGRESSION OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.  OVERALL PROGRESS OF THE
SYNOPTIC WAVE WILL BEGIN TO RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND IN
SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 11Z...WITH THE DECREASE OCCURRING SOONER
ACROSS NJ AND THE NYC AREA.

..THOMPSON.. 01/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   40617351 40517386 40717404 41017385 41337344 41777204
            42227076 42247041 42046998 41736987 41247125 40847248
            40837252 40617351

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 8:43 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.