Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1925
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 18, 2014, 1:00 PM EST for Erie County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, New York. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 18, 2014, 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 18, 2014, 5:00 PM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Wyoming County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 32 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 31 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 747 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 71 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
573
ACUS11 KWNS 181801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181800
NYZ000-182200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY STATE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 181800Z - 182200Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 3-4" PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE FOR NEXT
4-6 HOURS JUST S OF BUF. A SWD SHIFT AND WEAKENING OF THE BAND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER 00Z.
DISCUSSION...A STEADY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LONG-AXIS ORIENTATION OF LAKE ERIE...INTO SUBURBAN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
S OF THE NEARLY PERFECT ALONG-LAKE FETCH AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
BELOW 700 MB WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.VERY LARGE AIR-LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE DRIVING
INTENSE CONVECTIVE MIXING WITHIN THE LAKE PLUME...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 30-40 KT WNW-NW SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THE
BAND OVER THE NE PART OF LAKE ERIE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW /AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW
LIGHTNING FLASHES IN THE PAST HOUR/...AND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR OR AFTER 00Z...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
WILL LOWER AND THE DEPTH OF THE LAKE BAND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.....COINCIDENT WITH VEERING OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A
RESULTANT SWD SHIFT OF THE BAND AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES E OF
LAKE ERIE. THUS...THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IMMEDIATELY S OF BUF WHERE
EXCEPTIONAL SNOW TOTALS NEAR 4 FEET HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
..THOMPSON.. 11/18/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...
LAT...LON 42737933 42987867 43047830 42997790 42857782 42737798
42617834 42507888 42427927 42327969 42357989 42537987
42737933SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 8:49 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Erie, Genesee | 4 hr |
| Nov 18, 3:53 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jefferson, Lewis | 6 hr |
| Nov 18, 6:26 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Erie | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.