Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1898

October 15, 201411 counties in North Carolina; 54 counties in Virginia; Berkeley County, Hampshire County, Jefferson County, West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 15, 2014, 5:14 AM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina; 54 counties in Virginia; Berkeley County, Hampshire County, Jefferson County, West Virginia. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 15, 2014, 5:14 AM EDT (09:14 UTC)
Expired
Oct 15, 2014, 7:45 AM EDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 68 counties

Bertie County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Warren County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Jefferson County, WV

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 148 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2014-10-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 307 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2014-10-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 297 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
307 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
574 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
297 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
412 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 14, 9:24 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke, Caldwell and 15 more66 min
Oct 15, 12:48 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Carteret, Craven, Martin, Pamlico and 1 more57 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.