Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1813

October 6, 2014Caddo Parish, Louisiana; Carter County, Love County, Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 6, 2014, 5:04 AM CDT for Caddo Parish, Louisiana; Carter County, Love County, Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 86 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 6, 2014, 5:04 AM CDT (10:04 UTC)
Expired: Oct 6, 2014, 6:30 AM CDT
In force: 86 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Caddo Parish, LA, Carter County, OK, Love County, OK, Camp County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Marion County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rains County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Smith County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 10.1 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 614 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1702 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

228 
ACUS11 KWNS 061005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061004 
LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-061130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT MON OCT 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN TEXAS AND ADJACENT S CNTRL OK/NWRN
LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061004Z - 061130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS MAY CONTINUE IN
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL OK...NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE 11-13Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING. 
DUE TO THE SHORT TIME FRAME AND THE MOSTLY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED NATURE
OF THE THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF A SMALL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
TO THE SOUTH OF PARIS TX APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED AS ACTIVITY
ENCOUNTERED INFLOW OF INCREASINGLY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR ON A 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  BENEATH
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND IN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...THESE STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING MOSTLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS INTO THE
11-13Z TIME FRAME.  THEREAFTER...THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT
WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO DIMINISH TRENDS IN
STORM INTENSITIES.

SIMILAR TRENDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM STORM DEVELOPMENT /TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST/ ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY NOW
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 10/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   31919519 32779651 33299709 33759742 34669755 33569621
            33089560 33129464 32679386 31839388 31919519

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 6, 9:31 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 27 more	119 min
Oct 5, 10:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Carter, Cherokee, Coal, Garvin and 16 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.