Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 151

February 23, 201411 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2014, 1:50 PM EST for 11 counties in Florida. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 23, 2014, 1:50 PM EST (18:50 UTC)
Expired
Feb 23, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Brevard County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL

The radar

The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2014-02-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 9 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cape Canaveral, FL at 12:00Z on 2014-02-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 40 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
9 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1113 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

814 
ACUS11 KWNS 231850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231850 
FLZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO E-CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 231850Z - 232045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...WHILE ADDITIONAL
TSTMS SHOULD FORM SWD ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE.

DISCUSSION...SERN PORTION OF A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS RECENTLY OVERTAKEN
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA...EFFECTIVELY
INHIBITING ANY FURTHER NWD ADVANCEMENT. A RELATIVELY ROBUST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS NOW APPARENT WITH INSOLATION S OF THE
BOUNDARY SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 50S
NOTED IN THE COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM WINDS ARE WEAK IN TBW/MLB
VWP DATA...3-5 KM AGL WINDS AOA 40 KT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED BY TLH/JAX
VWP IN THE DECAYING/STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE MCS. GIVEN THE
ROBUSTNESS OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AND LYING ON THE
FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD
PERSIST AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD
YIELD SWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS INTO E-CNTRL FL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/HART.. 02/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29368268 29718096 27628030 27608072 28198130 28558199
            28858268 29368268

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 23, 4:35 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 9 more2 hr
Feb 23, 8:43 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlachua, Dixie, Gilchrist, Lafayette, Marion, Putnam and 2 more2 hr
Feb 23, 4:15 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and 1 more90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.