Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 151
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 23, 2014, 1:50 PM EST for 11 counties in Florida. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 23, 2014, 1:50 PM EST (18:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 23, 2014, 3:45 PM EST
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Brevard County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Volusia County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 9 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -162 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1113 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 40 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
814
ACUS11 KWNS 231850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231850
FLZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN INTO E-CNTRL FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 231850Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...WHILE ADDITIONAL
TSTMS SHOULD FORM SWD ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE.
DISCUSSION...SERN PORTION OF A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS RECENTLY OVERTAKEN
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA...EFFECTIVELY
INHIBITING ANY FURTHER NWD ADVANCEMENT. A RELATIVELY ROBUST
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS NOW APPARENT WITH INSOLATION S OF THE
BOUNDARY SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH UPPER 50S
NOTED IN THE COLD POOL. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM WINDS ARE WEAK IN TBW/MLB
VWP DATA...3-5 KM AGL WINDS AOA 40 KT HAVE BEEN SAMPLED BY TLH/JAX
VWP IN THE DECAYING/STRATIFORM PORTION OF THE MCS. GIVEN THE
ROBUSTNESS OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CORRIDOR AND LYING ON THE
FRINGE OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD
PERSIST AND BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS SHOULD
YIELD SWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPDRAFTS INTO E-CNTRL FL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS/HART.. 02/23/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 29368268 29718096 27628030 27608072 28198130 28558199
28858268 29368268SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 4:35 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 23, 8:43 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alachua, Dixie, Gilchrist, Lafayette, Marion, Putnam and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 23, 4:15 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and 1 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.