Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1413
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 19, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT for 22 counties in Georgia; 11 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2014, 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2014, 4:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 33 counties
Bryan County, GA, Bulloch County, GA, Burke County, GA, Candler County, GA, Chatham County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Effingham County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Evans County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Greene County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Screven County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Aiken County, SC, Allendale County, SC, Bamberg County, SC, Barnwell County, SC, Beaufort County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Colleton County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Hampton County, SC, Jasper County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC
The radar
The Charleston,SC radar (KCLX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 170 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -155 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 868 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
190
ACUS11 KWNS 191756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191755
SCZ000-GAZ000-192030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN GA...SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191755Z - 192030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BECOME STRONG...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR A WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...CLX AND JGX VWPS SAMPLE A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...CONSISTENT WITH WAA-ENCOURAGEMENT
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A WEAKLY CAPPED...MOISTURE-RICH...AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE AREA AMIDST NUMEROUS SFC BOUNDARIES -- A
REGIME WHICH PRECEDES A DISORGANIZED...LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC PERTURBATION GLANCING THE SRN APPALACHIANS. ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE IS OFFERING 20-25 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK
SHEAR. THIS DEEP SHEAR...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IMPLIED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND PROFILE...ARE BEING MANIFEST AS
WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES NEAR THE JGX RDA...INCLUDING
MARGINAL/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND LEWP STRUCTURES EXHIBITING
LOW-LEVEL MESO-VORTICES.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
EITHER SIDE OF A SFC FRONT ANALYZED FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
CNTRL GA EWD TO THE SC BORDER...WHICH THEN RUNS SEWD INVOF SAVANNAH
RIVER. WITH MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...AND AMPLE FRONTAL BAROCLINICITY NEAR THE SFC LOW...A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ENSUE. AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...AS WATER LOADING ENHANCES WET MICROBURSTS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS MAY SUPPORT A WEAK
TORNADO. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP ASCENT...AND WITH POOR
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...THE SVR RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT WW
ISSUANCE.
..COHEN/CARBIN.. 07/19/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...
LAT...LON 32968322 33588330 33828267 33588154 33458036 32857975
32238061 31928114 32248236 32968322Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.