Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 30, 2014, 5:12 PM CDT for 26 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 63 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 30, 2014, 5:12 PM CDT (22:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 30, 2014, 6:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 26 counties
Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 170 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2105 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -355 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1205 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 254 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 225 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
074
ACUS11 KWNS 302212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302212
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 302212Z - 302315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG STALLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THEN SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO. A WATCH
MAY BECOME NECESSARY BEFORE 23Z.
DISCUSSION...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NEAR THE NW
MO/SW IA BORDER...JUST E OF THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE SW WI/NW IL MCS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.
STRONG BUOYANCY REMAINS ALONG AND S OF THE E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND THIS CORRIDOR IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
MIDLEVEL WLYS. THE COMBINATION OF PEAK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX MOVING ESEWD OVER THE MID MO
VALLEY...WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS NRN MO...AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE
AOA 4000 J/KG WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME TORNADO
RISK. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AND A NEW WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY
ACROSS NRN MO.
..THOMPSON/DIAL.. 06/30/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 39569383 39629498 40049535 40529520 40699493 40719398
40749287 40579177 40429137 40169124 39759144 39689178
39629260 39569383SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 9:02 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton and 19 more | 88 min |
| Jun 29, 10:10 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Nodaway, Worth | 65 min |
| Jun 29, 11:36 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clay, Clinton and 11 more | 54 min |
| Jun 30, 12:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb, Holt and 2 more | 54 min |
| Jun 30, 2:03 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clark, Scotland | 5 hr |
| Jun 30, 3:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Scotland | 35 min |
| Jun 30, 3:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Daviess and 7 more | 113 min |
| Jun 30, 5:29 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Andrew, Atchison, Audrain, Boone, Buchanan and 34 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.