Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1038

June 17, 201416 counties in New York; 4 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 17, 2014, 1:38 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York; 4 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 97 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 17, 2014, 1:38 PM EDT (17:38 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2014, 3:15 PM EDT
In force: 97 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, McKean County, PA, Potter County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Warren County, PA

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312Jun 17, 3:00 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 128 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1154 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 83 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 144 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 17, 2:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cayuga, Chenango, Cortland, Jefferson, Lewis, Madison and 11 more	2 hr
Jun 17, 6:26 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Cortland, Erie and 13 more	64 min
Jun 17, 6:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Chemung and 25 more	5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.