Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 1014

June 16, 201443 counties in Ohio; 8 counties in Pennsylvania; 20 counties in West Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 16, 2014, 2:01 PM EDT for 43 counties in Ohio; 8 counties in Pennsylvania; 20 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2014, 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2014, 4:00 PM EDT
In force: 119 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 71 counties

Ashland County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Greene County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Washington County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KAGC), launched 12:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 24 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1378 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

503 
ACUS11 KWNS 161802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161801 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OH AND NORTHERN WV
TO WESTERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161801Z - 162000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF OH AND NORTHERN WV INTO WESTERN
OH.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OH SINCE LATE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCREASINGLY WARM/WEAKLY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE
THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK IMPULSE/SUBTLE MCV VIA
UPSTREAM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION. REGARDLESS...A GENERAL PREVALENCE
OF 80S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS
LEADING TO AS MUCH AS 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...BASED ON CONTEMPORARY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH ASIDE
FROM THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS. WHILE THE REGION IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT...MODEST WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-6 KM AND
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ADEQUATE CAPE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SUSTAINED EASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SEVERE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER CALIBER WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS FROM WRIGHT-PATERSON AFB /37
KT/ AND PARKERSBURG WV /40 KT/.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/16/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39248360 39948365 41208228 41668009 41297947 39547970
            38668115 38428246 39248360

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.