Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
409 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN THROUGH MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CHURNS EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THEREAFTER INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A CYCLONIC 100-135KT JET
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES
BETWEEN 0.33" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO 1.00-1.33" WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS.

CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW HAS ESTABLISHED A TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAP FROM
MEXICO THROUGH ARIZONA AND INTO UTAH. INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
AND JET DYNAMICS ARE ITNERACTING WITH THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...FOCUSING ON WESTERN UTAH THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY EAST OF
INTTERSTATE 15 WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING.

COOLING ALOFT IS PROVIDING A GREAT PROFILE FOR COPIOUS LIGHTNING.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH
MOISTURE THAT IS GREATER THAN +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND PROFILES SHOW THE WARM RAIN CLOUD LAYER NEAR
10FT.

STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER UTAH TODAY...SUSPECT THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL EXSIST ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE DAYTIME.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY.

FOCUS TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHILE DRY AIR
ALOFT PUNCHES INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH. STILL...GIVEN COOLING ALOFT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR A MENTION OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP WITH COLDER AIR INFILTRATING TONIGHT
SO NATURE OF THREAT WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL TO HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL AS THE COLD CORE MOVES ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z MONDAY)...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ON MONDAY. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPS WILL PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST INTO MIDWEEK...PREVENTING
TEMPS FROM RECOVERING. AFTER THE LAST GASP OF MOISTURE LEAVES THE
REGION...A WEAK RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN THE GREAT BASIN WHICH
USHERS IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WEATHER INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS LIKELY NEAR THESE STORMS. AWAY FROM STORMS...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z...WITH A CHANCE THAT GUSTS
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 6K FT
AGL WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOWERING TO OR BELOW 6K FT IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WIDESRPEAD WETTING RAIN TODAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MUCH COOLER...WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. COPIOUS LIGHTNING A
CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR UTZ010-012>016-
     019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
304 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-281300-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
304 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES...CREATING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. THE HIGHEST THREAT AREAS WILL BE SLOT
CANYONS...SLICKROCK AREAS...RECENT BURN SCARS AND SMALL STREAMS IN
STEEP TERRAIN. ISOLATED URBAN FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS ON
MONDAY. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
BEGINNING MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ROGOWSKI/VERZELLA

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
414 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 AM     TSTM WND GST     14 SW GUNLOCK           37.15N 113.96W
09/27/2014  M58 MPH          WASHINGTON         UT   MESONET

            BADU1 BADGER SPRING 3990 FT

&&

ROGOWSKI