Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
404 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE WILL DRY FROM THE WEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SATELLITE DERIVED PWS IN EXCESS
OF 1.0 INCH. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST INTERESTING STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST UTAH WHERE A JET STREAK IS BRINGING BETTER
DYNAMICS...ALLOWING FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN THE
MOIST AIRMASS...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...KEEPING THE THREAT OF FLOODING ELEVATED.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT TO SOUTHERN UTAH AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS FORCING MECHANISM AND
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THAN USUAL FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INTO OREGON...IDAHO...AND MONTANA. THIS WILL DRAW
DRIER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. BY FRIDAY...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT BECOMES LIMITED DUE TO
THE DRY AIRMASS. BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE TROUGH
NORTH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY...ALLOWING FOR
CONTINUED DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN UT WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE KSLC TERMINAL BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR VISIBILITY WITHIN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS THROUGH 00Z ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY...BUT WILL LIKELY BECOME ERRATIC AND DRIVEN BY
OUTFLOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW...AND ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH. BY SATURDAY...MOST OF THE STATE WILL
BE DRY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS MODELS DISAGREE
REGARDING TIMING AND LOCATION OF A MOISTURE SURGE.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR UTZ001>016-
     019>021-517-518.

WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...TRAPHAGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HOSENFELD
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-131100-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
333 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...POSING
A FLASH FLOOD RISK. STRONGER STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH WILL ALSO
CONTAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRYING WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IF THERE ARE ANY AREAS WITH CRITICAL
FUELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX

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