Wind Advisory 9, NWS San Angelo, TX

455 
WWUS74 KSJT 111111
NPWSJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
511 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

.EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS...BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
DROP TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S.

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-114-127-128-112200-
/O.CAN.KSJT.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-141111T1200Z/
/O.UPG.KSJT.FZ.A.0002.141112T0900Z-141112T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KSJT.FZ.W.0002.141112T0600Z-141112T1500Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
CALLAHAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...HASKELL...
THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...
ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS
511 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA WIDE. 

* IMPACTS: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
  LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS.
  EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

TXZ064>066-071>073-076>078-139-140-154-155-168>170-112200-
/O.UPG.KSJT.FZ.A.0002.141112T0900Z-141112T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KSJT.FZ.W.0002.141112T0600Z-141112T1500Z/
STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-
SUTTON-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...
BALLINGER...WINTERS...MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...
ELDORADO...SONORA...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...
MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
511 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY. THE FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AREA WIDE.

* IMPACTS: THIS WILL BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MANY
  LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES MAY DAMAGE COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS.
  EXPOSED PIPES MAY FREEZE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
541 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Gusty south winds will continue at KABI and KSJT through the next
24 hours. Farther south winds will diminish after sunset, and
increase after sunrise tomorrow. Gusty north winds will develop
following frontal passage. Models hint at MVFR stratus developing
at some terminals overnight. However, confidence in this was not
high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Veterans Day)

MUCH colder temperatures for tomorrow as an Arctic blast moves
through tonight.

Currently, we have breezy southwest winds across the area with
temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s. The cold
front is just making its way into the TX panhandle, and is on
track to move into our counties right around midnight tonight if
it continues at its current speed. Latest RUC data shows the front
moving into the Haskell/Throckmorton County area between 11 PM and
Midnight. And if the front does differ on timing, it will likely
be earlier considering how cold/dense this air mass is. Regardless
of the exact timing of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 30
degrees colder tomorrow. The temperature forecast itself only
required minor changes. And although sustained winds along the
front are currently 30-40 mph, with gusts over 50 mph, we do not
expect winds quite that strong as it moves through our area.
Surface pressure rises are currently around 20 millibars/6 hours
along the nose of the front as it moves south through eastern
Colorado/western Kansas. By the time the front is in our area,
these pressure rises will be spread laterally along the front, and
weaken to a max of around 15 mb/6 hours. So, we will see mainly 20
to 30 mph with higher gusts immediately along the front, and
weaken to 10 to 20 mph throughout the day Tuesday.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 30s along and north of I-20
tonight where the front will have time to cool things off, with
mainly lower 40s elsewhere. Along and south of Interstate 10 where
the front will not have much time to cool things, lows will be in
the upper 40s to near 50. On Tuesday, temperatures will remain in
the 40s for most of the day, but there will be a lot of sun to
fight the cold air advection, and so areas along and south of a
Sterling City to Brownwood line should be able to manage highs in
the lower to mid 50s. There may be a few clouds right along the
front as it moves through, but skies should remain mostly clear
other than that.

20

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night)

Plan for temperatures overnight Tuesday night to fall into mainly
the 22 to 30 range across West Central Texas.

Surface winds from the north Tuesday night will bring much colder
and drier air into West Central Texas. This inflow of cold arctic
air will likely bring the first freeze to all of West Central
Texas. We have extended the Freeze Watch to include all our
counties. However, we decided to just continue a watch for now,
given confidence issues regarding how far south the freeze will
go. Model data this run indicate temperatures will be some 5 to 7
degrees colder this period than the previous model data the
midnight shift used last night.

(Wednesday)

Expect much colder than normal temperatures Wednesday.

Winds from the north will continue to bring cold arctic air into
West Central Texas Wednesday. Models indicate winds will not be as
strong Wednesday; nevertheless, surface cold air advection will
continue, as surface high pressure builds over the region. Models
this cycle presented temperatures numbers very close to numbers from
our previous package. So, we didn't make any major changes here.
Highs mainly in the 40s still look likely for all areas, except
perhaps our Interstate 10 corridor, where highs will likely be
around 50.

(Wednesday night)

Freezing temperatures look likely again around sunrise Thursday
morning.

Models this cycle present colder lows for this period than the
previous run. With light surface winds from the north continuing
into Wednesday night, lows mainly in the mid to upper 20s look
reasonable. So, we did adjust numbers down a few degrees from our
previous numbers for this period.

(Thursday)

Surface winds from the north will shift during the day, and by
Thursday afternoon, surface winds will be from the east. East
winds are up-slope for our area. Thus, highs Thursday in the 40s
look best.

(Thursday night through Friday night)

A warming trend dominates these periods, as surface winds from the
southeast and south return. In response to another cold front,
highs on Friday will be mainly in the 55 to 60 range; that's much
closer to seasonal normals.

(Saturday through Monday)

Another cold front and associated upper-level system may bring
cold temperatures and perhaps additional rain to West Central
Texas. Confidence still is not real high regarding where and when
rain may occur. The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement this
cycle, with neither developing any closed circulation aloft during
the Saturday to Saturday night periods. So, with confidence not
high, numbers and Pops close to a blend of models look reasonable.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 37  48  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo 	 41  52  25  44  26 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction 	 47  54  31  50  29 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...
Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...
Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...
Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

99/24/60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-112145-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
331 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN AFFECT F0R THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.