Wind Advisory 6, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1110 AM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

.UPDATE...

We are issuing a Wind Advisory shortly, for all of the Big Country
(counties along and north of Interstate 20), along with Coke and
Sterling Counties to the south. The Advisory will be in effect
from Noon to 5 PM today. We are also updating the PoPs to account
for ongoing precipitation across our east and southeast counties.
The updated products will be issued shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

The northern terminals will remain VFR through the next 24 hours.
The southern terminals will remain MVFR through most of the morning
before lifting to VFR. A dryline will move through the area today
shifting winds to the west southwest and gusting 20 to 30 knots as
it passes the terminals. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
developing along the dryline during the afternoon, however, will not
include their mention at this time due to their isolated nature. A
strong cold front will move south through West Central Texas after
midnight, shifting winds to the north between 07Z and 09Z at the
northern terminals with north winds gusting to around 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper shortwave trough now over New Mexico will move east across
northern Texas today. As the upper level system moves through the
area a dryline will be pushed west to east across the forecast area
with strong dry southwest winds in its wake. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline today with a
slight risk of strong to severe storms over our southeastern
counties this afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the
primary threats associated with any storm that becomes severe.

A strong cold front will move south through the area overnight
bringing much colder air to the forecast area. Expecting another
warm day today with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Post-frontal morning lows tomorrow will be mostly in the 40s with a
few lower 50s along the Interstate 10 corridor.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Weekend)

..Frost or even a light freeze possible Tuesday morning...

Upper level trough axis slides across the Plains during the day on
Monday, allowing a strong cold front to push through West Central
Texas. Models bring the surface high pressure into the area just in
time Monday Night and Tuesday morning to create near perfect
radiational cooling conditions across the area. The MET guidance
numbers plunge Tuesday Morning lows into the lower 20s across much
of the area, while the GFS keeps readings as much as 10 degrees
warmer. MET numbers have been cool all winter long, and in past
years they often seem to struggle late in the season as well. At
this point, will undercut the MAV guidance a degree or two but not
take readings into the 20s at this point. However, this will need to
be closely monitored, with the possibility of Frost and or Freeze
products needing to be issued.

Passage of another Upper level trough allows a second cold front to
push into the area on Thursday, although nowhere near as cold as the
Tuesday front will be. It will bring a much drier air mass into the
area, which will be problematic for the next potent system both the
GFS and the ECMWF show moving into the area for the weekend.

Models show the potent Upper Level low moving across the Southwest
US late in the week, approaching Texas for Saturday. Both models are
able to bring enough low level moisture back into the area for
widespread showers and storms. Considering the ongoing drought and
the fact that we are talking about Day 6 in the forecast, will
introduce slight chance rain chances to the forecast, but keep it
low at this point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 88  40  56  33  64 /  20  10  10   0   0
San Angelo 	 88  48  59  32  64 /  20  10  10   0   0
Junction 	 86  57  61  34  65 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Schleicher...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
857 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-141400-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
857 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM CROSS PLAINS TO EDEN TO ROOSEVELT...LOCATED 15
MILES WEST OF JUNCTION. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO THROCKMORTON.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM NOON TO 7 PM TODAY...ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON TO COLEMAN TO EDEN TO OZONA.

STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12 PM...NOON TO 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
911 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

TXZ066-128-139-140-131500-
RUNNELS TX-COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-BROWN TX-
911 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...COLEMAN...CALLAHAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 905 AM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM LAKE
IVIE TO LAKE BROWNWOOD AND WEST TO VALERA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BROWNWOOD BY 915 AM CDT
  LAKE BROWNWOOD STATE PARK...BYRDS AND EARLY BY 920 AM CDT
  OWENS BY 925 AM CDT
  MAY BY 935 AM CDT
  BLANKET BY 940 AM CDT

BE PREPARED FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45
MPH...AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

LAT...LON 3144 9938 3145 9940 3146 9941 3147 9945
      3145 9945 3145 9943 3145 9945 3167 9984
      3224 9912 3209 9911 3208 9893 3180 9873
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 242DEG 30KT 3180 9911

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1000 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

TXZ139-140-131545-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
1000 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR
COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

AT 952 AM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED BETWEEN
CROSS PLAINS...SANTA ANNA AND BROWNWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE OCCURRING! VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OCCURRING.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  LIGHTNING MAY CAUSE POSSIBLE INJURY OR DEATH TO PEOPLE REMAINING
  OUTDOORS...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...

MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT LAKE BROWNWOOD...THE
CITY OF BROWNWOOD...OWENS AND MUCH OF NORTHERN BROWN COUNTY THROUGH
1045 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3162 9925 3202 9924 3209 9907 3208 9893
      3206 9890 3179 9873
TIME...MOT...LOC 1456Z 240DEG 44KT 3192 9900