Wind Advisory 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

367 
WWUS74 KSJT 232344
NPWSJT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076-077-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-240045-
/O.EXP.KSJT.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-141124T0000Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...HASKELL...
THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...
ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD
544 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 15 MPH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING.

$$

JOHNSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1144 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Showers and thunderstorms have ended, and skies are clearing. Sent a
quick update to remove weather and clear skies for the remainder of
tonight. Otherwise, the forecast looks good.

Huber

&&

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Convection has moved out of the CWA but we are seeing some patchy
IFR stratus and fog, generally along the I-20 corridor from near
KABI and KSWW, south to just north of KSJT. A tempo for IFR
ceilings and visibilities was included for KABI, but conditions
should improve by 08z as drier air moves in from the west. Winds
will veer to the southwest later tonight, becoming westerly on
Sunday and increasing to near 20 kts (sustained). Gusts may
approach 35 kts at KABI and KSJT, which may necessitate an Airport
Weather Warning at KABI (criteria is gusts >= 35 kts). However,
will let the next shift monitor this potential as confidence is
less than 80% at this time. Winds are expected to diminish around
00z, but a cold front will shift winds to the north between 00z
and 06z. Winds may be gusty briefly with this frontal passage.
Expect mostly sunny today, with a few clouds around 10,000 ft
approaching from the north by 00z.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...

The latest WSR-88D and satellite data indicate showers and
thunderstorms have moved east of our area, except across some of
our southeastern counties. There, convection will linger until
midnight. Removed weather for all but those counties for the
remainder of tonight. Also, adjusted sky coverage for the
remainder of tonight. Otherwise, the current forecast looks good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours. Patchy
MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue at the Brady terminal for the
next few hours. Then, VFR ceilings will return there, as convection
moves over and southeast. For tomorrow, plan for very gusty west
to northwest winds, as a pacific front moves east across Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Upper low was moving east out of the Big Bend region this afternoon.
This may generate a few storms along the I-10 corridor from Ozona
to Junction where mid level lapse rates were 7-8 C/KFT and CAPES
were around 2000 J/K. For severe storms however, it will have to a
narrow opportunity with loss of the sun's heating. The best scenario
is non severe thunderstorms to move east into the I-10 corridor from
higher terrain in the Trans Pecos and Northern Mexico late afternoon
and evening.

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms at 330 PM in the Big Country
southward to Robert Lee...Ballinger...Lake O H Ivie and Coleman
should weaken fairly rapidly later this afternoon with loss of the
sun's heating. Localized flooding issues are the main hazard for
next 2-3 hours in Coleman and Runnels counties. Steering winds will
be turning east with the approaching upper trough this evening,
moving the storms east of the CWA.

Strong gusty west to northwest winds are expected to develop by late
Sunday morning, particularly in the Big Country and Concho Valley,
as a strong surface low moves east across Oklahoma and a cold front
moves through West Central Texas. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts of 35 to 40 mph are likely. While conditions will be
elevated to near critical for fire weather, moist ground from
today's rain should mitigate fire danger.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)

The extended period will feature dry northwesterly flow through
mid week, with a transition to a more zonal flow pattern by weeks
end. It will be dry through the period, with a couple of weak
fronts affecting the area, one on Tuesday and another next Friday.
The fronts will have minimal affect on our weather, other than
slightly cooler temperatures behind them. Temperatures for the
most part will remain below normal through the forecast period,
with highs in the 50s and lower 60s and overnight lows mainly
in the 30s and lower 40s. The exception will be Thanksgiving Day
when temperatures will be closer to normal, with highs in the mid
and upper 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 48  68  38  58  34 /  10   0   5   0   5
San Angelo 	 46  73  37  60  34 /  10   0   5   0   5
Junction 	 46  76  37  62  33 /  30   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
937 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-231100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
937 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED...GUSTING OVER
40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON