Special Weather Statement, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Thunderstorms may develop again this afternoon and evening. The best
locations for thunderstorm development is along and east of a line
from Haskell to Junction. The terminal most likely to have
thunderstorms is Brady. Rather than including any thunderstorms in
the Brady terminal at this time, no weather for now looks to be the
best forecast. In addition, patchy fog may develop several hours
before sunrise at some terminals, due to a very moist near-surface
layer and light surface winds.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

UPDATE...

The latest model data, and radar trends, indicate convection will
likely not begin until this afternoon. Plus, the best area for
thunderstorms this afternoon is across the eastern Big Country and
eastern Heartland. After coordination with WFO Norman, increasing
PoPs for these areas for this afternoon looks best.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

A few showers and thunderstorms continue between KABI and KBBD but
will likely have little impact on forecast terminals this morning.
A VCSH remark was included at these terminals this morning,
however. Low stratus, generally between 700 and 1500 ft, has
filled in across much of the area and will persist through mid to
late morning, gradually lifting to 5000-6000 ft this afternoon.
Southwest winds this morning will become west to northwest later
today but should remain below 12 kts for the most part. Scattered
diurnal thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon but
confidence was not high enough to include in current TAF package
at any site. Winds will become light and variable overnight. The
light winds and moist soils will promote patchy fog development
after midnight. MVFR visibilities were included at KJCT and KBBD
but may need to be expanded to other terminals as well.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)

The powerful upper-level cyclone that has brought widespread heavy
rainfall and severe weather to West Central TX is currently
centered just west of Wichita Falls and will continue to move east
in the near term. The strongest lift attendant to this cyclone
will shift to the east, however, it appears that we'll continue to
see at least weak synoptic scale ascent over the next 12-18 hrs.
Precipitable water values are progged to remain in the 1.2 to 1.4
inch range over the eastern counties, decreasing to less than 1
inch across the western zones.

Point soundings from Throckmorton, to Coleman, to Junction,
indicate a moist environment with only a weak cap in place
around 800 mb. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon
should be able to overcome this cap. The greatest instability will
likely be along and southeast of a slow-moving frontal boundary
that will cross the area today, stalling over the southeast
counties this afternoon. The NAM is suggesting MLCAPE values near
2500 J/kg this afternoon whereas the GFS is closer to 500 J/kg.
That said, the GFS drops surface dewpoints down to less than 55F
by 21z with a more aggressive surface boundary, which seems a bit
overdone. Basically, we expect diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms to develop by early to mid afternoon. Coverage will
become more limited as one moves west. Given forecast
instability/shear parameters, the potential will exist for severe
weather during the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly
southeast of a Sonora/Brownwood line. the upper-level flow will
back to the northwest on the backside of the upper low, which will
give any storms that develop more of a southeasterly component.

A few thunderstorms may linger into the overnight period but it
looks like convection will wane pretty quickly after sunset. Low
rain chances were carried through the early morning hours,
however, given the proximity to the upper-level cyclone.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s tonight.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)

After much needed rainfall across West Central Texas the past few
days, a more tranquil weather pattern is expected through the
extended forecast period. However, there will be few bumps in the
road. Weak upper level disturbances moving south across our area
on Friday and Saturday may bring a few afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. Keeping the slight chance POPS going across the
eastern half of the area Friday and the Big Country Saturday.
Otherwise, going with a mainly dry forecast. The other story,
looks like a more summertime pattern setting up this weekend and
early next week, as an upper level ridge builds across the
Southern Plains. Highs will be the 80s to around 90 through
Friday, then slightly warming to the upper 80s to lower 90s this
weekend and early next week. Lows will be in the 60s to around 70.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 85  63  86  64  87 /  20   5  10   5  10
San Angelo 	 89  63  88  63  90 /  20   5   5   5  10
Junction 	 87  65  88  66  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-282015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
307 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ALBANY...TO
ABILENE...TO SAN ANGELO...TO SONORA LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.
BUT...TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HUBER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
132 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAY                     31.98N  98.92W
05/26/2014                   BROWN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. THE LIMBS WERE 5 TO 10
            FEET IN LENGTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400217

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N MERTZON             31.35N 100.82W
05/26/2014  E60 MPH          IRION              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400218

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
301 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TORNADO          14 WSW STERLING CITY    31.76N 101.21W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONFIRMED TORNADO ON THE GROUND.

0654 PM     HAIL             2 WNW STERLING CITY     31.85N 101.02W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       STERLING           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0702 PM     TSTM WND GST     STERLING CITY           31.84N 100.98W
05/26/2014  M60 MPH          STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM     HAIL             5 WNW STERLING CITY     31.87N 101.06W
05/26/2014  E2.00 INCH       STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0713 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW BROOME            31.79N 100.92W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROPE TORNADO

0713 PM     HAIL             9 NNW ROBERT LEE        32.01N 100.54W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       COKE               TX   PUBLIC

0715 PM     HAIL             STERLING CITY           31.84N 100.98W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     TORNADO          1 NW BROOME             31.77N 100.85W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF ROPE TORNADO.

0731 PM     TORNADO          7 W BROOME              31.76N 100.96W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONFIRMED ROPE TORNADO

0805 PM     TORNADO          14 SW STERLING CITY     31.70N 101.15W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CONFIRMED TORNADO.

0812 PM     HAIL             4 SSW STERLING CITY     31.78N 101.02W
05/26/2014  E2.00 INCH       STERLING           TX   STORM CHASER

0819 PM     HAIL             4 SSW STERLING CITY     31.79N 101.01W
05/26/2014  E2.00 INCH       STERLING           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM     TORNADO          3 SW WATER VALLEY       31.64N 100.75W
05/26/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED ALONG THE HILLS SW OF WATER
            VALLEY...NEAR FM 2034.

0845 PM     FLOOD            5 S STERLING CITY       31.77N 100.98W
05/26/2014                   STERLING           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HWY 163 FLOODED 4 TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF STERLING CITY.

0845 PM     HAIL             4 W WATER VALLEY        31.67N 100.79W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0851 PM     HAIL             9 ESE BRONTE            31.84N 100.15W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       RUNNELS            TX   PUBLIC

0851 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 ESE BRONTE            31.84N 100.15W
05/26/2014  E70 MPH          RUNNELS            TX   PUBLIC

0903 PM     HAIL             5 WNW BALLINGER         31.77N 100.03W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       RUNNELS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

0912 PM     HAIL             BALLINGER               31.74N  99.96W
05/26/2014  E1.50 INCH       RUNNELS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

0913 PM     TSTM WND GST     BALLINGER               31.74N  99.96W
05/26/2014  E60 MPH          RUNNELS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

0917 PM     HAIL             GRAPE CREEK             31.58N 100.55W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0917 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                31.60N 100.63W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0922 PM     HAIL             1 W GRAPE CREEK         31.58N 100.56W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0930 PM     HAIL             GRAPE CREEK             31.58N 100.55W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0939 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N MERTZON             31.35N 100.82W
05/26/2014  E60 MPH          IRION              TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0946 PM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

0946 PM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/26/2014  M1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT CHADBOURNE AND COLLEGE AVENUE

0947 PM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/26/2014  E1.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

            NORTH SIDE OF SAN ANGELO ON BRADFORD ST. HAIL
            INCREASING IN SIZE.

0948 PM     HAIL             3 NE SAN ANGELO         31.48N 100.42W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   POST OFFICE

0949 PM     HAIL             SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/26/2014  E1.00 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NEAR FT CONCHO

0953 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W SAN ANGELO          31.45N 100.52W
05/26/2014  E65 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

0953 PM     HAIL             4 SE SAN ANGELO         31.41N 100.40W
05/26/2014  E2.75 INCH       TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WALL                31.37N 100.29W
05/26/2014  E61 MPH          TOM GREEN          TX   MESONET

1033 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAY                     31.98N  98.92W
05/26/2014                   BROWN              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. THE LIMBS WERE 5 TO 10
            FEET IN LENGTH.

1215 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 S SAN ANGELO          31.35N 100.45W
05/27/2014                   TOM GREEN          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ONE TO TWO FEET OF WATER WAS REPORTED IN SEVERAL
            LOCATIONS ALONG FM 584 WEST OF HIGHWAY 277.

0132 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW MENARD             30.90N  99.81W
05/27/2014                   MENARD             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN UP TO 40 FEET IN LENGTH.
            METAL ROOF DEBRIS FROM BUILDING IN FIELD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400184 SJT1400185 SJT1400186 SJT1400188 SJT1400187
SJT1400215 SJT1400189 SJT1400190 SJT1400191 SJT1400194 SJT1400192
SJT1400193 SJT1400216 SJT1400195 SJT1400198 SJT1400196 SJT1400197
SJT1400203 SJT1400199 SJT1400200 SJT1400201 SJT1400202 SJT1400204
SJT1400205 SJT1400218 SJT1400206 SJT1400213 SJT1400207 SJT1400212
SJT1400208 SJT1400209 SJT1400210 SJT1400211 SJT1400217 SJT1400214
SJT1400219

DOLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
321 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

TXZ099-272045-
THROCKMORTON TX-
321 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  HEAVY RAINFALL
  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL

AT 317 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ELBERT...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF THROCKMORTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...POTENTIAL VEHICLE HYDROPLANING...
  ACCUMULATION OF WATER AT LOW WATER CROSSINGS...AVOID THESE AREAS...
  SOME LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES...
  HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ALERT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LUSK...
  WOODSON AND ELBERT.

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 334...
  LAKE CROSSING KINGS CREEK...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 376...
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 374...
AND OTHER LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE PORTIONS OF THROCKMORTON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3327 9895 3296 9895 3295 9907 3296 9908
      3318 9915 3328 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 307DEG 12KT 3320 9901

HUBER