Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
339 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
The main concern in the next 24 hours is the potential for severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. Currently, a complex of
thunderstorms is moving across the Big Country. These thunderstorms
will have the potential to produce hail, strong damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall. An outflow boundary is located along a Water
Valley...to Big Lake...to McCamey line, and is showing signs of
slowing down. Additional convection is firing across West Texas, in
a very unstable atmosphere. This convection will have the potential
to move into mainly our western counties later this afternoon and
this evening, and a Tornado Watch is in effect for these areas
through 10 PM. Although large hail, damaging winds, and lightning
look to be the main threats, isolated tornadoes will be possible,
especially during the early evening hours. We have increased PoPs
across much of the area, ranging from likely west to low end chance
across the southeast counties. Several models indicate another
shortwave trough moving into West Texas early Sunday morning,
initiating additional convection, then eventually moving it into at
least the western half  of our area. Likely PoPs were continued
across the western half of the region, with higher PoPs shifting
east across the area during the morning hours. Given all of the
mesoscale boundaries currently across the area, a lot of uncertainty
remains on the exact placement and timing of these heavy rain
events.

Given the above mentioned factors, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for all of the Big Country and Concho Valley. An additional 1
to 3 inches...with some higher amounts...will be possible this
evening through Sunday evening. The main areas of concern are urban
areas and low lying areas, including low water crossing.

.LONG TERM...
/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
An active weather pattern is in store with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall likely and a few severe storms are
possible. Currently, a strong upper level low was located near the
Four Corners region(centered along the Arizona/New Mexico state
line). The upper level low will move slowly east across the southern
Rockies Sunday and then into the southern Plains early next week.
The models are pretty consistent on the track of the upper low. All
the models are still very wet across much of West Central Texas. The
ingredients for heavy rainfall include: lots of moisture(PWATs of
1.2 to 1.6 inches), low level southerly flow and convergence (850 MB
winds 35 to 45 knots), and significant diffluence at 250 MB.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are looking pretty good across
much of the area with locally higher amounts possible. Have a Flash
Flood Watch going until 7 PM Sunday. The Flash Flood Watch may have
to be extended possibly into Monday as thunderstorm complexes(MCS
activity) will continue. In addition, severe weather may be possible
Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening. The combination
of good instability(MLCAPES 1500 to 2000 J/KG) and bulk 0-6KM shear
values of 35 to 40 knots will yield a few severe storms. The main
hazards will be large hail...damaging winds and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning.

/Wednesday through Saturday/
A quieter weather pattern for middle to late next week. The
combination of abundant low level moisture and weak upper level
northwest flow may develop isolated afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. However, will keep the forecast dry for now. Expect
warmer temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
lows in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  80  67  82  66 /  70  60  50  50  60
San Angelo 	 67  81  67  83  67 /  60  60  50  40  40
Junction 	 69  81  67  82  67 /  40  30  40  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Sunday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...Haskell...
Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...
Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

14/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-252015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A THROCKMORTON...TO
ABILENE...TO SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

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