Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
602 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered thunderstorms developing off the mountains of Mexico
may affect KSOA and KJCT toward 3Z tonight. Better chance of storms
will be after 6Z across much of West Central Texas as a couple bands
of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east
across the region. Have VCTS at most TAF sites beginning 6Z. Storms
will end from west to east Thursday morning. MVFR CIGS likely after
6Z along the I-10 corridor and up to Brady will lift to VFR by mid
to late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
The main concern for tonight's forecast will be the severe
weather potential across most of the area.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 123 has already been issued for areas
generally north of a Sterling City to Brownwood line, and this
will be in effect through 10 PM tonight. Thunderstorms have
already developed along and north of Interstate 20 in our area
within an instability ridge with CAPE values of 2500 J/kg or
greater, and along a dryline running north to south through
Throckmorton County. A second moisture discontinuity line is
located just west of our CWA, and will likely serve as another
focus for thunderstorms to develop along. While deep layer shear
is not quite that impressive just yet at 30-35 knots through 6km,
thus storms are not very well organized just yet, and have been
somewhat pulsey in nature so far. However, the ample instability
is allowing thunderstorms to develop quickly with explosive
updrafts, and possible hail up to the size of quarters for brief
periods. As we move forward in time, we will see this speed shear
increase which should help with storm organization, and increase
chances for severe hail and/or wind gusts. There is also the
outside possibility for a tornado or two to develop within the
watch area. However, LCL's within our CWA are 5000 feet or higher,
which will hinder the chances for a tornado to develop. These will
lower as temperatures fall though, so it can't be completely ruled
out.

Overnight tonight, large scale upward motion and increasing mid
level lapse rates, along with the increasing speed shear
mentioned earlier, will move into the area as the upper level low
in Utah, and attendant shortwave moving through said low make
their way toward Texas. This lift will interact with a Pacific
front/dryline moving east across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
areas, and likely result in another broken line of thunderstorms
develop west of our area, then moving through after midnight.
Although instability will be lacking due the event taking place at
night, some storms embedded within this line are expected to be
strong enough to produce severe size hail, and possible damaging
wind gusts. However, these storms are also expected to be a mixed
mode, and not extremely well organized. Lows tonight are expected
to be in the mid to upper 60s with a few locations near 70
degrees.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing tomorrow
morning, mainly east of a Haskell to Sonora line, so have kept in
slight to likely chances for the eastern 2/3 of the forecast area
through 18Z. After noon, the precipitation should be moving out of
the area for the most part. Expect high temperatures to again cool
a few degrees tomorrow, especially eastern areas that will see
some rainfall and cloud cover through the morning hours.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)

The upper level storm system that is bringing the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the area today
and tomorrow, will be mainly east of West Central Texas by
Thursday evening. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across mainly the extreme southeast counties, but I
think the majority of convection will have moved east of the
region by 00z Friday. Above normal temperatures are forecast on
Friday, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Models
are hinting at a weak short wave trough traversing the area late
Friday. The NAM and ECMWF are both hinting at convection
developing during the late afternoon/evening, mainly across the
Texas Hill Country. At this time, the majority of convection looks
to remain south and east of our area, but slight chance PoPs were
continued across mainly our extreme southeast counties.

Unseasonably hot temperatures are in store this weekend, ahead of
the next upper level trough that will move ashore the Pacific
Northwest early Saturday. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in
the mid to upper 90s, with the hottest temperatures likely on
Sunday, ahead of a cold front. There continues to be disagreement on
the timing of the next cold front, with the GFS bringing the front
through most of the area by 12z Monday, while the ECMWF is slower,
bringing the  front through the area during the day Monday. The
current forecast is trended closer to the faster GFS solution, with
PoPs beginning overnight Sunday, and ending by late Monday. A lot of
uncertainty remains this far out on the exact timing of the front,
and extent of convection, and PoPs may need to be adjusted on future
shifts. Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are forecast Monday
through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  91  57  88  64 /  60  50  10  10  10
San Angelo 	 67  90  54  92  66 /  40  20  10  10  10
Junction 	 70  88  63  90  68 /  40  40  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

24/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
339 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-082045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
339 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF A HASKELL...TO
BALLINGER...TO SONORA LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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