Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across mainly the eastern half
of the area this afternoon, with a surface trough/dryline moving
into the western parts of the region. So far, mostly heavy rainfall
has been reported, but the potential remains for a few storms
producing gusty winds or hail, and a severe thunderstorms watch is
in effect that includes Brown, Callahan and Coleman counties.
Additional showers and thunderstorms have developed along the actual
dryline/surface trough over the Western Big Country. I expect most
of this activity to move east of the area shortly after 00z.

A cold front will move through the area after midnight, with north
winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph, with gusts to 45 mph. We have gone
ahead and issued a wind advisory for the entire area from 06z
through 21z. Although the southern counties may remain just below
criteria, they will be close enough and may reach it in gusts, so we
went ahead and included them. The next upper level trough/low will
dive south across West Texas, then across our area on Sunday. Models
are more pessimistic in terms of rain chances, with most rainfall
remaining south and west of the region. For now, I have trended PoPs
down, with the highest PoPs across the southern counties. In
addition, less cloud cover/precipitation will likely allow
temperatures to climb a bit more than previously forecast. I have
trended temperatures up a bit, with highs generally in the lower to
mid 50s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night)

If the center of the upper low moves south of our area, as the NAM
indicates, our southern counties may have lingering light rain.
Thus, continuing PoPs for our southeastern counties until 06Z looks
reasonable. Low PoPs of 20 percent reflect my low confidence. North
surface winds will continue; however, they'll diminish during the
evening hours.

Huber

(Monday through Saturday)

For the remainder of the long term, conditions look dry. The upper
level pattern become more zonal, and a warming trend begins.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be back in the 80s. Then, another
cold front will move south across West Central Texas and bring gusty
north winds and cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Following that
front, another warming trend will produce afternoon highs on Friday
in the 75 to 80 range. Then, the GFS brings another front across
West Central Texas Friday night and Saturday, when afternoon highs
will be closer to seasonal normals.

Huber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 43  52  31  66  45 /  30  30  10   5   0
San Angelo 	 46  55  34  69  45 /  20  30  10   5   0
Junction 	 47  54  35  69  41 /  10  30  20   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Crockett...
Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...
Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...
Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

Daniels/Huber

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
307 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-162015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
307 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
ROBERT LEE...TO WINTERS...TO BROWNWOOD LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED THE MAIN HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS FOR
SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL BETWEEN 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS 45 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

TXZ066-127-128-139-152115-
RUNNELS TX-TAYLOR TX-COLEMAN TX-CALLAHAN TX-
340 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT FOR
RUNNELS...TAYLOR...COLEMAN AND CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW...OR
ABOUT 5 MILES NORTH OF WINTERS...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAWN BY 355 PM CDT
  GOLDSBORO BY 400 PM CDT
  NOVICE BY 410 PM CDT
  OPLIN BY 415 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3216 9953 3199 9952 3197 10005 3209 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 269DEG 32KT 3203 9992

DANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
410 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             ABILENE                 32.45N  99.73W
03/15/2014  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL IN ABILENE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400061

HUBER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
420 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE POTOSI             32.37N  99.65W
03/15/2014  E60 MPH          TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED A WALL CLOUD 2 MILES TO THE
            SOUTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400063

DOLL

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