Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
840 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

.UPDATE...

Showers and thunderstorms have moved south of our Interstate 20
corridor, and the threat for further  development has significantly
diminish. Thus, the Big Country counties are no longer in Tornado
Watch number 288. Thanks to SPC and WFO Fort Worth for coordination.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 648 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for MVFR ceilings to return to West Central Texas tonight. In
addition, thunderstorms are possible at all five terminals until
around midnight tonight. However, these thunderstorms will either be
isolated or scattered. So, timing at the terminals remains
difficult. Rather than including prevailing thunder in the
terminals, amendments for approaching thunderstorms looks to be the
best approach.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

The main concern this afternoon and evening is the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms, some producing large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes. A cold front was located along a line
from near Fort Stockton, to Big Spring, then into Haskell and
Throckmorton counties. A very unstable environment is evident ahead
of the front, across much of the Concho Valley, Heartland, and
Northwest Hill Country. In addition, steep lapse rates and 0-6 KM
Bulk Shear values of 30 to 40 knots are currently being experienced
across these areas. As the front slowly moves south, showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop late this afternoon, with the
best chance south and east of a Brownwood, to San Angelo, to Ozona
line. Given the aforementioned factors, any storms that do develop
will have the potential to become strong to severe, with large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes being the main hazards.
Showers and thunderstorms should slowly shift south and east this
evening, with the majority of convection moving south of the area
during the early morning hours Friday.

On Friday, the remnant cold front will be located across the
Northwest Hill Country/Heartland. This may be the focus for isolated
showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the morning hours, and this
is reflected in the grids. Models indicate an upper level shortwave
trough moving into West Texas tomorrow afternoon, resulting in
showers and thunderstorms. The NAM continues to be the most
aggressive in moving this convection into at least the western third
of the area during the late afternoon hours, and I have expanded
PoPs into much of the western Concho Valley, western Big Country,
and Crockett county. Again, a few of these storms could be strong to
severe. Highs on Friday will be cooler, generally in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

West Central Texas will be on the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridge this weekend into the middle of next week.
Through the weekend, the upper ridge will be centered over Mexico
but is expected to build northeast across the southeastern states
late this weekend into early next week, as an upper level trough
develops across the western CONUS. The airmass across West Central
Texas will remain moist and unstable through the period, with
periodic weak disturbances moving across the area through early next
week. POPs were increased to 30 percent across western portions of
the Concho Valley and Crockett county Friday evening. Some of the
storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds the main
threat. Thunderstorms may also develop west of the area again
Saturday afternoon with some of this activity making into far
western/southwestern counties by evening. Not a clear enough signal
in the models to warrant mentionable POP's Saturday through early
next week but did include isolated thunder west of a Sterling city
to Ozona line for Saturday evening. If storms develop, they will
again have the potential to become severe given the unstable airmass
in place.

The medium range models continue to be at odds with each other by
the middle of next week, with the ECMWF maintaining a western US
trough and eastern ridge, while the GFS builds the ridge across
the Rockies with troughing across the east. The ECMWF solution
would favor diurnally driven convection along the dryline to our
west, while the GFS would result in hot and dry conditions as the
ridge builds. For now, will maintain a dry forecast Sunday through
Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm through the period, with
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s and lows in the lower
70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  87  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
San Angelo 	 70  91  72  96  71 /  30  10  20  10  10
Junction 	 72  92  72  95  71 /  40  20  10  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Daniels/JW
Aviation/Short Term/Update: Huber

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-132000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BROWNWOOD...TO SAN ANGELO...TO OZONA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF A SWEETWATER...TO SAN ANGELO...TO
SONORA LINE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
806 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0759 PM     HAIL             VOCA                    31.01N  99.18W
06/12/2014  E2.50 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400273

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
807 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             2 SE VOCA               30.99N  99.16W
06/12/2014  E2.25 INCH       MCCULLOCH          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400274

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
844 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCHELLE                31.22N  99.21W
06/12/2014                   MCCULLOCH          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE ROCHELLE AREA. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65
            MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400275

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
851 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

TXZ154-168-170-130215-
MCCULLOCH TX-MASON TX-MENARD TX-
851 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
MCCULLOCH...MASON AND MENARD COUNTIES...

POTENTIAL STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
  GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL

AT 850 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH ROAD 1311...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
WEST OF BRADY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

POTENTIAL STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE...
  SOME BROKEN TREE BRANCHES AND A FEW WEAK TREES TOPPLED...
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY...
  LIGHT LOOSE OBJECTS TOPPLED...
  DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
  MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE...
  ISOLATED SMALL DENTS TO VEHICLES...

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ALERT INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CALF
  CREEK...CAMP SAN SABA...CAMP AIR...BRADY LAKE...US-190 NEAR THE
  MENARD-MCCULLOCH COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF US-190 AND RANCH
  ROAD 1311...THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 29 AND RANCH ROAD 1222...
  VOCA...KATEMCY...HEXT AND BRADY.

LAT...LON 3099 9977 3109 9962 3109 9960 3111 9960
      3130 9933 3095 9913 3077 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 309DEG 14KT 3110 9950

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
852 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCHELLE                31.22N  99.21W
06/12/2014                   MCCULLOCH          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN ON HIGHWAY 190

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1400276

REIMER

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