Red Flag Warning 2, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail across West Central Texas terminals
through the period, with the biggest potential aviation concern
being wind speeds. Gusty south winds overnight will shift more to
the southwest and increase on Thursday. Gusts over 25 knots will be
likely, and above 30 knots at Abilene and San Angelo.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Strong and gusty south to southwest winds will be the main impact
through the next 24 hours.  Expect gusty south to southeast winds
tonight in higher elevations at 12 to 20kts.  Strong southwest winds
will increase tomorrow after 15z with southwest winds of 20 to 30kts
and gusty.  A strong surface pressure gradient will set up across
the area tonight and tomorrow as a surface low develops across the
Texas Panhandle.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Much warmer conditions on the way to West Central Texas. After
seeing temperatures drop into the single digits for many areas,
temperatures have been rebounding well into the 40s for most
locations. Surface high has shifted to the east, allowing south
winds to increase. Already seeing a few gusts to near 20 mph and
these winds will continue into the overnight hours. These southerly
winds will help keep overnight lows much warmer tonight. The usual
warmer spots with southerly winds, the hills near the I-20 corridor
from Sweetwater to Abilene, may stay above freezing. The usual cold
locations, the river valleys and lake shores from Sonora to Junction
to Brownwood will drop into the mid 20s.

Tight pressure gradient on Thursday as the lee trough strengthens.
Gusty winds over 30 mph likely, along with very warm temperatures.
Friday still looks to be the warmest day, but readings in the lower
70s from Abilene and San Angelo westward still look likely. Fire
weather will be the biggest concern, with low level moisture still
largely cut off, combining with the strong winds and well above
normal temperatures.

07

LONG TERM...

GFS and EC models are getting into better agreement this weekend
into next week. Cold front is held off until Saturday, although the
front may not push south through the I-10 corridor until after
maximum heating in the late afternoon.

For next week, I did not make many changes. The 12Z EC is closer to
the GFS model, with the upper trough moving east through New Mexico
and Texas becoming more open, progressive, and farther north.
Soundings indicate a warm layer aloft Monday and Tuesday that may
prevent most wintry weather. Exceptions are a slight chance of
freezing rain Monday morning in the Big Country north of I-20, and
mixture of light rain and snow Tuesday morning, also north of I-20.
There continues to be uncertainty in the evolution and speed of the
southwestern upper trough, and the amount to cold air, so people
should keep an eye on later forecasts.

A warm up is not expected in the latter half of next week, with
another possible intrusion of cold air from Western Canada.

04

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible tomorrow, generally
west of a San Angelo, to Abilene, to Haskell line. Minimum relative
humidity values across the area will be 15 to 30 percent, with 20 ft
winds 15 to 20 mph tomorrow afternoon. With the continuing dry
conditions, fuels are well cured. With the winds and low humidities,
if a fire starts will be have the potential to spread quickly. Any
activities with an open flame or spark should be avoided. Conditions
will remain elevated on Friday, with winds only 10 to 15 mph. Minimum
humidities will be in the 15 to 25 percent range. Through the
weekend, cooler temperatures will keep humidities above 30 percent,
with winds generally less than 15 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 33  70  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
San Angelo 	 29  72  40  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   5
Junction 	 25  64  37  80  46 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Thursday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
Callahan...Coke...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...Sterling...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
202 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-302015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
202 PM CST WED JAN 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY WEST
OF A SAN ANGELO...TO ABILENE...TO HASKELL LINE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AS GUSTY WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY AIR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

REIMER