Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
633 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to continue for the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms may approach or move over terminals today. However,
timing and location is too uncertain to include any thunder in any
of the terminals this cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms will continue
today. Models show some divergence regarding QPF, with the GFS
actually indicating slightly higher amounts than the NAM. However,
both models present a very spotty, here-and-there, QPF field. So,
given uncertainty, 30 PoPs for most areas look best for the today
period.

For tonight, rain chances end, as the upper ridge continues to
slowly move east. A few showers may linger into the evening hours;
however, confidence regarding where that might happen is too low to
continue any weather for the tonight period.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the overall
upper level pattern, and indicate that an upper level high
will build over the lower Mississippi Valley during the latter half
of this week. This expansive high will be our dominant weather
influence resulting in minimal rain chances. The 850mb thermal ridge
will build to some extent into our area, then remain about steady
during the weekend and into the first part of next week. With this
pattern, expect highs to be mostly in the mid 90s Thursday to Monday
across our southern and central counties, and mostly in the upper
90s across much of our northern counties (north of Interstate 20).
The hottest readings should be near 100 degrees across our far
northern (Haskell and Throckmorton) counties. Overnight lows are
expected to be in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmer readings
mostly across our northern counties. Could have some low cloud
development during the early morning hours across our southeastern
counties. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy skies are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 93  71  95  73  95 /  30  10   5   5   5
San Angelo 	 93  72  94  73  95 /  30  10   5   5   5
Junction 	 92  71  93  73  94 /  30  10   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Short Term/Aviation: Huber
Long Term: 19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-200930-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
430 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
FLASH FLOODING AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

HUBER