Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1140 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.AVIATION...
SVR TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS NE TX AND SW AR. LINE SEGMENT
RACING ACROSS SW AR HAS MOVED EAST OF KTXK TERMINAL...AND WILL
HEAD INTO KELD TERMINAL AROUND 0530Z. VERY FREQUENT LTG
STRIKES...STG WINDS ABOVE 45 KTS FROM WEST...AND POSSIBLE HAIL
WITH THIS STORM.  OUTFLOW WINDS AT KTXK WILL DIMINISH AND RETURN
TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS. A TRAILING BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING
WWD JUST NORTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR WILL SINK SWD INTO KTYR AND KGGG
BY 05Z...AND INTO KSHV BY 0530Z. THESE STORMS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...HOWEVER...
LTG STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. TSTMS
SHOULD AFFECT KLFK AND KMLU TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. CIGS ACROSS
AREA...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY MVFR. COLD
FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF CWA...THUS MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS STILL
EXPECTED BEHIND STORMS. HOWEVER...SKIES BECMG VFR SKC BEHIND COLD FRONT...
WITH N-NW WINDS BECMG 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AFTER 05/06Z...UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO REPLACE SKC
CONDITIONS./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A SLOW START TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS EVENING DUE TO DELAYED
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DRYLINE. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
CHARACTERIZED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADIC SIGNATURES BEGINNING TO DRIFT
EAST TOWARD RED RIVER AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS.
LATEST RAOB FROM KSHV INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. PREVIOUS
CAP FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS SENSE ERODED. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HENCE...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 56 HAS BEEN
ISSUED...WHICH IS AN EXTENSION TO THE PREVIOUS WATCH AND
INCORPORATES PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS.
WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM.

DUE TO THE DELAY IN DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ARRIVAL...ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASED POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  71  46  67  51 /  70   0   0  20  40
MLU  64  74  46  65  50 /  70  20   0  20  50
DEQ  56  67  38  66  47 /  70   0   0  10  20
TXK  58  68  44  66  49 /  70   0   0  10  30
ELD  63  71  43  66  49 /  70   0   0  10  40
TYR  58  70  46  65  50 /  70   0   0  20  30
GGG  60  70  46  66  50 /  70   0   0  20  30
LFK  64  72  48  67  54 /  50  10  10  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1117 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041200-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1117 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS...NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AS THEY
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE INTO THESE
AREAS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS
THESE STORMS DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THIS
EVENING...A PREDOMINANTLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA AS THESE STORMS
ACCELERATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE STORMS EXIT THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO MUCH
OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNS NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
CROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND AMATEUR
RADIO OPERATORS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

13

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