Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
247 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO EL DORADO
ARKANSAS CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS TO THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SHIFTS
EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. BY DAYBREAK...MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A TWO PART LAKE WIND ADVISORY. ONE
BEGINNING AT 10 PM FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND ANOTHER BEGINNING
AT 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR STRONGER CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE NORTH TEXAS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH
RICH GULF MOISTURE...WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO BEGIN BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...CONVECTION TO BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN
THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT. FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE ARKLATEX THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING A
SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING THREAT. PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOST LOCATIONS POST FRONTAL AFTER
SUNSET ON MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
UPPER-LOW ACROSS ARKANSAS TO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOME AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  79  53  74  48 /  50  80  10  10  10
MLU  68  82  55  73  50 /  30  80  40  10  10
DEQ  66  75  52  71  42 /  80  80  30  10  10
TXK  68  77  52  71  48 /  70  80  20  10  10
ELD  67  78  52  70  46 /  50  80  30  10  10
TYR  69  74  51  75  49 /  70  80  10  10  10
GGG  71  77  52  76  46 /  70  80  10  10  10
LFK  73  82  52  78  48 /  30  80  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>003-010.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ004>006-011>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ165>167.

&&

05/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON MONDAY...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS EVENT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
505 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW MANY               31.58N  93.49W
10/12/2014                   SABINE             LA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400612

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
508 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW MANY               31.60N  93.51W
10/12/2014                   SABINE             LA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400613

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

LAZ001-TXZ126-138-122300-
CADDO-HARRISON-MARION-
513 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES AND COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CADDO...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     HARRISON AND MARION...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BELCHER...BLANCHARD...MOORINGSPORT...OIL CITY...KARNACK...
     MARSHALL...WASKOM AND WOODLAWN...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHALL...MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA TO HALF INCH DIAMETER SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SHOULD THIS STORM INTENSIFY...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

15

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