Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL TO AFFECT KTXK/KELD/KMLU WITH TOPS TO
40-50KFT. WE HAVE SEEN SOME WINDS ON RADAR TO 40KTS...BUT LITTLE
GROUND TRUTH. MORE CONVECTION FOR COMING UP KTYR TO KLFK WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AREAS. OVERALL WE ARE
SEEING SOUTHERLY FLOW 10G20KTS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS VEERING TO SW
AND WEST INTO THE MID LEVELS 20-40KTS. CURRENTLY MID LEVEL DRY AIR
INTRUDING ACROSS OK WILL BOTTLE UP TROPICAL AIR OVERNIGHT PERHAPS
TO A GREAT EXTENT OVER THE ARKLATEX.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 204 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS TO CENTRAL KANSAS AND A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ALLOWING FOR SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER-TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS TEXAS OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLOUD
COVER TO PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. WITH ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

LONG WAVE UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TO TREND A LITTLE
COOLER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES. SOME AREAS...INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  93  75  94  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  73  92  73  93  72 /  20  20  10  10  10
DEQ  73  91  71  92  70 /  50  20  10  10  10
TXK  74  91  74  92  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
ELD  72  92  72  94  71 /  30  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  92  74  92  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  73  93  74  93  73 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  75  94  75  94  74 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-291700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1146 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TODAY. THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ072-073-LAZ004>006-013-014-021-282130-
CALDWELL-CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-JACKSON-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-UNION-
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...
     UNION...
IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     UNION...OUACHITA...LINCOLN...JACKSON AND CALDWELL...
IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     CLAIBORNE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     ATLANTA...BUSSEY...CALION...EL DORADO...EMERSON...HUTTIG...
     JUNCTION CITY...LAPILE...LAWSON...LISBON...MACEDONIA...
     MAGNOLIA...MCNEIL...MOUNT HOLLY...NORPHLET...SMACKOVER...
     SMITHLAND...STRONG...URBANA...VILLAGE...WALDO...WESSON...
     BERNICE...BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...CLAIBORNE...FARMERVILLE...
     HAYNESVILLE...MONROE...RICHWOOD...STERLINGTON...SWARTZ AND WEST
     MONROE...

AT 356 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BUSSEY TO
7 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAGNOLIA TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBIA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
418 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ060-061-071-072-282215-
COLUMBIA-HEMPSTEAD-LAFAYETTE-NEVADA-
418 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     COLUMBIA...HEMPSTEAD...LAFAYETTE AND NEVADA...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     BLEVINS...BLUFF CITY...BODCAW...EMMET...HOPE...PERRYTOWN...
     PRESCOTT...ROSSTON...WASHINGTON AND WILLISVILLE...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEWISVILLE
TO BUCKNER TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF STEPHENS...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LEWISVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF STAMPS TO STEPHENS...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

15

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